During this festive Christmas period, the crypto market is coming to life with a notable renewed optimism. Data from bitcoin derivatives markets suggests a high probability of seeing the queen of cryptos reach $105,000, driven by persistent bullish sentiment and favorable technical indicators.
Bitcoin Derivatives Market Signals Robust Optimism
Traders and analysts are carefully observing the movements of bitcoin which, after a correction of 14.5% since its historic peak of $108,275, is showing encouraging signs of recovery.
The monthly futures premium, currently at 12% above the spot marketdemonstrates a marked appetite for long positions. This configuration, significantly above the usual neutral zone of 5-10%, also reflects the confidence of institutional investors in the upward trajectory of bitcoin.
Bitcoin options reinforce this positive market reading, with a spread of just 2% between puts and calls, a level historically associated with market expansion phases. This metric, closely monitored by professionals, suggests that major market players are maintaining their bullish exposure despite recent volatility.
The Long/Short leverage ratio on OKX reaches remarkable levels, with a 25x multiplier in favor of long positions. Although significant, this level remains below the thresholds for excessive euphoria, generally located above 40x.
The macroeconomic environment supports the bullish thesis
The recovery of traditional markets, symbolized by the rebound of the S&P 500 index during the Christmas holidays, creates a favorable context for risky assets like bitcoin. The increase in yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which rose to 4.59%, paradoxically strengthens the appeal of bitcoin as a safe haven against inflation.
The monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve, which now plans two rate cuts in 2025, helps maintain an environment conducive to digital assets. This position, although more conservative than initial expectations, continues to support the hypothesis of abundant liquidity in the medium term.
The 64% correlation level between bitcoin and the S&P 500 highlights the growing integration of crypto into the traditional financial landscape, while preserving its diversification potential.
In sum, the convergence of technical and fundamental indicators, coupled with bitcoin's resilience in the face of recent corrections, suggests that the $105,000 target is not only achievable, but could mark a new milestone in the crypto's institutional adoption .
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