The global economy operates according to cycles where fiduciary currencies play a crucial role in market dynamics. Indeed, the weakening of the US dollar, often perceived as an indicator of macroeconomic readjustment, this time seems to open an opportunity window for cryptos. According to Raoul Pal, analyst and CEO of Real Vision, the fall of the dollar could be the catalyst for a second quarter 2025 particularly bullish for bitcoin and the entire crypto market. This optimism is based on historical data and well -established macroeconomic trends. But then, is this situation the signal of a sustainable rally or simply a temporary reaction of the market?
Pressure dollar: a bull signal for bitcoin
Since the beginning of February, the dollar index (DXY), an indicator that measures the value of the greenback against a basket of currencies, has recorded a drop of 2.79 %, and has reached 104,258 according to tradingView data. A fall that occurs while Scott Bessent, secretary of the American treasury, has confirmed In an interview on Fox News on March 4, 2025 its intention to soften the monetary conditions by reducing interest rates. For Raoul Pal, this dollar withdrawal is a key variable. He precise In a publication on the social network X (ex Twitter) on March 5, 2025 “that with a dollar, rates and the price of downward oil, financial conditions are rapidly softened and cause risky assets up.”
The first reactions of the Crypto market were not long in coming. In parallel with the fall of the DXY, Bitcoin increased by 6 %, and reached $ 91,860 this March 6, 2025, a trend that strengthens the hypothesis of a direct link between the drop in the dollar and the growing interest in cryptos. This scheme is not unprecedented: in 2020, during the pandemic, massive liquidity injections and interest rates close to zero had propelled bitcoin from 5,000 to more than $ 60,000 in one year.
The challenge of global liquidity and the CAP of March 25
Beyond the mere weakness of the dollar, it is the evolution of global liquidity that could play a key role in the coming weeks. According to André Dragosch, analyst at Bitwise, the increase in global money supply is about to reach a new historic summit, a signal that could amplify the renewed interest in risky assets, including Bitcoin. Thus, “if this trend is confirmed, the world money supply will soon exceed its previous records”, he declared In a publication on the X platform (ex Twitter) on March 5, 2025.
Another element draws the attention of analysts: the date of March 25, 2025. Identified as a rocking point by several experts, this period would coincide with an expected rebound in markets, in connection with the resumption of capital flows to cryptos. Colin Talks Crypto, sector specialist, underlines On the X platform on March 5 that “the resumption of actions, bitcoin and cryptos will be spectacular”. A scenario reminiscent of the previous expansion phases where the market has followed an upward dynamic after periods of accumulation.
However, the prospects remain subject to many factors of uncertainty. A possible sudden bitcoin correction, a turnaround of monetary policy or an unexpected rebound in the dollar could slow down this momentum. The story shows that if the correlation between the dollar and the bitcoin is proven, it is never linear, which thus gives way to sometimes unpredictable adjustments.
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