Below $90,000, bitcoin sends a strong signal. A key profitability indicator hits a two-year low, marking a possible market reset. Behind an apparently stable price, on-chain data reveals a profound shift in investor behavior.
In brief
- The price of Bitcoin falls below $90,000, but this decline hides a much deeper underlying dynamic.
- A key profitability indicator (the SOPR ratio) falls to its lowest level in two years.
- Long-term holders stop selling, marking a possible “reset” of the market.
- This drop in the ratio signals the end of a distribution phase and a purge of speculative excesses.
Long-term bitcoin holders stop selling: a reset signal?
In an analysis published on December 7, CryptoQuant reveals a major shift in the behavior of long-term (LTH) bitcoin holders, as some analysts anticipate a year-end rally.
The latter, who have held their BTC for more than 155 days, have visibly suspended their sales while the market has fallen below $90,000.
“Bitcoin’s SOPR ratio (LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR) fell to 1.35, hitting its lowest level since early 2024”, noted the CryptoOnchain analyst in a publication relayed on the CryptoQuant Quicktake blog.
This ratio, which compares the profitability of UTXOs spent by long-term and short-term holders, is a key indicator of potential selling pressure in the market.
This drop in the ratio is interpreted as the end of an intense distribution phase on the part of LTHs. In other words, these players, historically considered the strongest in the market, have stopped making their profits or cutting their losses.
The CryptoQuant report mentions a “complete market reset”suggesting that the speculative excess observed earlier in the bull cycle has been evacuated. According to available datawe observe:
- The end of the selling pressure exerted by long-term holders, often the driving forces behind major distribution phases;
- A return to lower levels of profitability, reducing the incentive to sell for these investor profiles;
- A market purge of speculative excesses, which had taken the ratio to peaks at the peak of the cycle.
As CryptoOnchain summarizes, “the decline suggests a massive market reset. The speculative foam that had propelled the ratio to new heights has been purged”. Thus, this structural change could herald a new market equilibrium, but without a clear signal of an imminent bullish restart.
Short-term speculators in full hesitation
While the historical holders are withdrawing from the arena, the short-term players (STH) seem to have taken over, not without inconsistencies.
CryptoQuant observes erratic behavior of these speculators, characterized by net movements of purchases then sales over a very short period. “The net change in position of STH over 30 days saw a strong upward peak on November 24, before becoming negative on November 1er December “specifies the report.
These data illustrate a deep uncertainty among recent market players, whose decisions seem to be dictated more by short-term fluctuations than by fundamental convictions.
This instability is also reflected in the fact that it is now mainly STHs which generate profitable transactions. Unlike LTHs which have suspended their movements, speculators continue to enter and exit the market quickly.
The lack of clear direction and the emotional volatility of this segment could keep bitcoin in a zone of turbulence, without a real base of support to trigger a new upward impulse.
The price of bitcoin reflects less inertia than silent change. With the disappearance of the selling pressure from historical holders, the market enters a waiting phase. It remains to be seen whether this reset prepares for a lasting rebound or prolongs the current instability.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
