Bitcoin loses its momentum: Glassnode points out a market in occurrence

After months of recovery, the upward dynamics of the Bitcoin market suddenly runs out of steam. All the indicators, spot, derivatives, ETF, saw red, revealing a drop in liquidity, a decline in the appetite for risk and a general slowdown. Glassnod's latest report confirms a phase change: euphoria gives way to caution, in a fragile and unpredictable market context.

A widespread withdrawal in the Spot, derivatives and ETF Bitcoin markets

The Bitcoin market is currently going through an unstable period with massive sales and discreet purchases. In his latest report, Glassnode finding a clear inflection of the bullish dynamic of bitcoin, indicating that “The momentum dissipates in the Spot markets, in the long term, of options and ETF”.

On the Spot market, the indicators show rapid deterioration of the technical structure. The RSI (relative Strength Index) fell from 47.4 to 35.8, crossing the lower threshold and entering into an occurrence zone.

This correction is accompanied by a marked strengthening of the selling pressure. The CVD Spot (cumulative Delta volume), a key imbalance indicator between purchase and sale orders, collapses from $ 107.1 million to $ 220 million, while liquidity weakens, as evidenced by a decrease in daily volume of $ 8.4 to 7.5 billion. This trio of indicators suggests a loss of buyer momentum and a more active distribution phase.

The phenomenon extends to derivative and ETF markets, strengthening the idea of a drop in appetite for the risk scale. The figures published by Glassnode reveal a cautious dynamic:

• Open interest on future contracts fell slightly from $ 45.6 to 44.9 billion, betraying a partial disengagement from the open positions;

• The financing of long positions drops by 33 %, standing at $ 3.1 million, indicating a reflux of upward demand for leverage;

• The CVD of perpetual contracts slides from –1.2 to $ 1.8 billion, signaling persistent selling pressure;

• Open interest on options drops by 8.4 % or $ 39.8 billion, testifying to a progressive disinterest in speculative bets;

• Implicit volatility (volatility spread) contracts sharply, from 23.84 % to 16.26 %, reflecting risk reassessment by investors;

• The 25 Delta SKEW climbed to 5.51, exceeding its high band, showing increased interest in lower protection options;

• The net influx on ETF drops from 24.9 % to $ 269.4 million, well below recent average levels;

• The volume of ETF transactions increased slightly by 9.9 % or $ 19.8 billion, a sign of a reactive market, but on the defensive;

• The ETF MVRV ratio fell from 2.4 to 2.3, indicating a slight withdrawal of the average profitability of the positions.

This decline coordinated on several market segments illustrates a switch to caution. If no brutal collapse is observed at this stage, the synchronization of negative signals confirms a disengagement phase.

A more measured on-chain activity and signs of exhaustion sellers

Beyond traditional financial markets, on-chain activity presents a more contrasting reading of the situation. If the environment remains generally less active, some metrics reveal a certain balance in the structure of the market.

The number of active addresses increased by 3.6 % to 729,000, while the Realized Cap metrics changes remains high at 6.3 %, indicating that capital flows continue to flock to the network, although in a more moderate rate.

On the other hand, the volume transferred fell by 13.9 %, to $ 9.4 billion, and transaction costs decrease by 14.4 %, or 483,200 dollars, signs of a more discreet on-chain economic activity.

From a point of view of the liquidity and the distribution of capital, the indicators remain stable. The Short-Term Holders / Long-Term Holders ratio is unchanged at 17.3 %, and the speculative capital share (Hot Capital Share) remains at 36 %, translating a relative balance between short and long-term investors.

On the other hand, the profitability data data reflect increasing prudence. The percentage of the supply in profit fell to 93.6 %, the NUPL drops to 8.6 %, and the ratio made losses/profits drops to 1.9. These elements show that, despite a still globally profitable market, earnings are more reserved.

According to Glassnode, the market seems to slide from a phase of euphoria to a re -evaluation phase, with conditions of occurrence and signs of exemption seller which could suggest a short -term technical rebound. However, the overall structure of the market remains fragile, which makes any recovery scenario depending on an external catalyst or a revival of demand, still uncertain at this stage. If a rebound is possible, it is based on poorly solid foundations, which invites caution in projections. In this perspective, can Bitcoin still target the $ 148,000 before the end of the year?