Bitcoin jumped above $106,000 this Monday, November 10. A recovery fueled by a series of macroeconomic signals considered favorable. After a phase of consolidation, the queen of cryptocurrencies thus benefits from a new context which awakens speculative appetites.
In brief
- The Fed ends monetary tightening, boosting liquidity favorable to bitcoin.
- The possible release of the TGA after the shutdown would inject billions into the banking system.
The main driver of the bitcoin rebound: the Fed
The American Federal Reserve has just announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT). As of December 1, the Fed will therefore stop reducing its balance sheet. It will resume the reinvestment of matured Treasury bonds. John Williams, president of the New York Fed, even raises the possibility of new asset purchases. The goal: to guarantee the stability of the money market.
Historically, each phase of increase in the Fed's balance sheet coincides with an appreciation of bitcoin which captures part of this abundance of liquidity. This link between monetary easing and digital assets therefore remains one of the markers most scrutinized by crypto investors.
Another catalyst: the prospect of an end to the political crisis in Washington
The government shutdown could end between November 12 and 15according to prediction markets. This would unblock the Treasury General Account (TGA), automatically injecting billions into commercial banks. Once again, bitcoin would benefit from this additional reserves.
To this are added rumors of fiscal stimulus. Donald Trump is indeed talking about a new $2,000 check program. The housing regulatory authority is considering 50-year loans, intended to reduce monthly payments. These proposals, even theoretical, fuel market optimism on a massive return of easy liquidity.
A window of opportunity for bitcoin bulls?
Despite this dynamic, technical indicators show a still cautious market. We refer in particular to the Fear & Greed index which remains in extreme fear territory. The Put/Call ratio, on the other hand, leans towards the bullish side.
The key threshold for traders? The 200-day moving average, which bitcoin must cross to confirm a real reversal.
If the political announcements materialize, the climate could change very quickly. In the meantime, investors will have to scrutinize the dollar curve, long-term rates and the Fed's timetable.
In any case, bitcoin stands out more than ever as the thermometer of monetary tensions and hopes. File to follow very closely…
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
