Bitcoin could very well continue its trajectory despite the blocking of the Clarity Act in the Senate. After the failed closing procedure, the odds of the bill passing this year dropped from 15% to 5% on Polymarket. Bitcoin therefore fell towards $75,000 at the same time, without any direct link being able to be established between the two movements. A paradox emerges behind this political setback. While Washington is still seeking to clarify the rules of the crypto market, bitcoin already has many major regulatory achievements in the United States.
In brief
- The CLARITY Act suffered a serious setback in the US Senate.
- Its chances of adoption this year drop from 15% to 5% on Polymarket.
- Bitcoin falls towards $75,000, with no causal link established with the vote.
- BTC already benefits from several major regulatory achievements in the United States.
- In the long term, the CLARITY Act would mainly serve to secure Bitcoin’s regulatory achievements.
Bitcoin already enjoys an established regulatory status
The CLARITY Act project must establish federal rules for the crypto market, distribute jurisdiction over the different tokens between the SEC and the CFTC and indicate the activities authorized to banking institutions and exchanges. However, in the United States, bitcoin is already considered a commodity, while Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024. Last March, the SEC and the CFTC also confirmed its commodity status.
Therefore, many figures in the sector consider that its adoption does not represent a necessary condition for the success of BTC. Michael Saylor precise this position: “Bitcoin doesn’t need CLARITY. America needs it.”before adding: “bitcoin will succeed, with or without legislation”.
Arthur Hayes underlines he also that “Bitcoin did not need the Clarity Act from 2009 to today, and it will not need it in the future”. Jake Chervinsky judge that “the crypto ecosystem will do very well without the Clarity Act”believing that the SEC and CFTC already have the necessary teams and authority.
The main elements put forward to put the immediate impact of the CLARITY Act on bitcoin into perspective are therefore the following:
- Bitcoin already has commodity status with American regulators;
- Bitcoin ETFs have been authorized since January 2024, already offering regulated access to BTC;
- The SEC and CFTC confirmed this status in March 2026;
- The CLARITY Act does not directly mention bitcoin, despite its ambition to regulate the crypto market;
- The price of BTC has not systematically followed the probabilities of adoption of the text this year, which suggests that it should not be presented as a mechanical driver of the price.
Banking rules could weigh more on demand
This debate changes its nature when it moves to the banking sector. The CLARITY Act could enshrine in law their ability to hold bitcoins for their customers and offer certain services relating to credit, payments or derivative products. Yet it could not immediately remove one of the main obstacles to direct exposure of financial institutions: capital requirements.
According to the Basel Global Standard, a bank must hold at least $1 million in capital to back $1 million in bitcoin. This rule has not been adopted by the United States. Moreover, their regulators have not decided on their own definitive requirements either.
Favorable developments in this area would also have more influence on institutional demand for BTC than the CLARITY Act. Even adopted this year, the project would not have immediate effects. The majority of its provisions could only take effect 360 days after its promulgation, pushing back a large part of the practical changes until the end of 2027.
The scope of the text is mainly played out over the long term
The interest of the CLARITY Act could be less spectacular in the short term than defensive in the long term. By modifying certain regulatory achievements into legislative provisions, it could make them more difficult to challenge if the administration resulting from the presidential election of November 2028 adopts a policy less favorable to bitcoin. The text would also protect Bitcoin developers, mining companies and dormant BTC held in self-custody.
Its reach would also exceed bitcoin. Assets like XRP could benefit more from a stabilized regulatory framework, with the possibility that some capital would then flow into altcoins rather than BTC. After the vote failed, Willy Woo observed a different dynamic between the US and offshore markets: “I see Americans selling following the failure of the Clarity Act (on Coinbase). Meanwhile, the more globally dominant offshore market continues to accumulate (on Binance). Bullish ».
This divergence sums up the limit of an exclusively American reading of the file. Bitcoin remains a global asset. Washington can secure its regulatory environment, but the CLARITY Act alone constitutes neither the condition nor the guarantee of a new increase.
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