Bitcoin has seen steady gains since the start of the week, closing in positive territory over the past four days. But these short-term gains don't tell the whole story. Beneath the surface, market conditions have changed in recent weeks. Fewer coins are moving to exchanges, suggesting investors are not rushing to sell, a key sign that selling pressure is easing.
In brief
- The transfer of Bitcoin to exchanges has declined sharply in recent weeks, signaling lower sales activity.
- This reduction in whale unloading reduces market pressure and creates conditions for more stable price movement in the short term.
- The continued decline in selling could allow Bitcoin to approach resistance levels near $102,000 and test higher thresholds.
Bitcoin sees selling pressure ease
Bitcoin briefly fell to $80,000 on November 21 but has since climbed to a one-month high near $94,000. This recovery comes as fewer coins are moving to exchanges and sales from large holders have slowed, trends that generally help support market stability.
Over the past three weeks, deposits to exchanges have fallen sharply from 88,000 BTC to 21,000 BTCreflecting a gradual reduction in sales activity which had been intensifying. Much of this slowdown is due to the actions of large investors and whales. Specifically, their share of deposits on exchanges fell from 47% in mid-November to 21%, while their average transaction size decreased by 36%, from 1.1 BTC to 0.7 BTC.
These changes in market behavior were already in place before today's decision by the Federal Reserve, which reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%–3.75%, marking the third reduction in 2025.
Bitcoin on its way to near-term gains
The slowdown in selling comes after a period of steep market losses, with Bitcoin falling below $100,000 on November 13 and whales as well as short-term traders recording $646 million in realized losses, marking the largest losses seen since mid-year.
In total, net losses reached about $3.2 billion in recent weeks, a level that appears to have weeded out the most vulnerable holders and reduced forced selling pressure. Although such losses can cause significant declines during weak market phases, once most of this pressure subsides, it often creates the conditions for more stable price movement.
If the sell-off continues to remain weak, Bitcoin could see further upside in the near term, with potential levels to watch reflecting both on-chain metrics and historical resistance points.
- Bitcoin could rise towards $99,000, which corresponds to the lower bound of the Trader On-chain Realized Price indicator, suggesting initial upside potential if current market conditions continue
- Looking higher, key resistance is seen at $102,000, near the one-year moving average, and around $112,000, corresponding to the upper bound of this same on-chain indicator, indicating areas where bullish momentum could encounter stronger selling pressure
Rate cut offers relief, but history weighs on momentum
Along with these resistance levels, the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut could influence near-term price action, potentially sparking a brief relief rally. However, historical trends suggest that Bitcoin often faces downward pressure after FOMC announcements, with analyst Ali Martinez noting that in 2025 the only short-lived rally occurred in early May.
Currently, the cryptocurrency remains in a corrective channel, trading around $93,731 with resistance between $94,000 and $96,000. Any sustained upward movement will depend on the ability of buyers to overcome these barriers to maintain momentum.
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