Bitcoin Fails at $72,000: Analysis for June 11, 2024

While the price of Bitcoin faced upward pressure leading its price to its all-time high, BTC failed to break its resistance at $72,000. Let's analyze together the future prospects of the BTC price.

Bitcoin (BTC) price situation

While Bitcoin seemed to want to continue its rise, selling pressure reaching $72,000 called into question this dynamic. Indeed, for the fourth time, the cryptocurrency has rejected this price level, which seems to constitute significant resistance. Now, Bitcoin price appears to be forming a double top, a technical pattern suggesting a possible continuation of the bearish movement. This naturally suggests the reintegration of the lower part of the range formed by Bitcoin around $60,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $67,500. In the short term, we can see that the cryptocurrency has stabilized around $67,000. So, maintaining BTC at this level can continue to give hope to buyers. The medium-long term structure of Bitcoin still remains bullish, as demonstrated by the Dow Theory and the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Which reinforces this optimistic outlook. However, the momentum of the Bitcoin price seems to continue to weaken, which suggests a continuation of the bearish movement that has just started.

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)

Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains resurgent as its underlying loses value. This demonstrates an increase in positions (long or short) as the price of the cryptocurrency is about to reach the $67,000 support. Coupled with a still positive financing rate, we can deduce that buying interest still dominates. This reflects a price gap between BTCUSDT contracts and their underlying, likely due to resurgent upward pressure. Finally, on the liquidation side, we can see that there were more than $21 million in liquidations during the rejection of the $72,000, demonstrating a forced capitulation of buyers.

The heat map of liquidations over the past month indicates that BTC/USDT reacted negatively to contact with the liquidation zone identified around $72,000. This demonstrates seller interest at this level. Now, the most significant liquidation zone is between $65,000 and $66,000. If the market approaches this level, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. This area therefore represents major points of interest for investors.

Hypotheses for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

• As long as the price of Bitcoin manages to stay above $66,000, we can anticipate a break of $72,000. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish movement continues, would be Bitcoin's ATH below $74,000. Higher up, we can highlight the first level of the Fibonacci extensions identified at $78,300. At this stage, this would represent an increase equivalent to 16%.

• If the price of Bitcoin does not remain above $66,000, we could consider support for buying interest at $65,000 or even $63,000. The next level to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $60,000. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to -10%.

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Conclusion

Although Bitcoin's long-term trend remains bullish, recent rejections at critical resistance levels and the formation of a double top suggest a possible continuation of the bearish movement. The recent stabilization gives hope to buyers, but current dynamics indicate a weakening of the latter. Thus, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or refute the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.