Cryptos are going through a storm. Bitcoin plunges more than 9%, Ethereum loses 6% and XRP tumbles 15% in the space of a week. Behind this debacle, a stubborn belief divides investors: will bitcoin's legendary four-year cycle seal the market's fate, or is it an outdated relic in the age of institutional adoption?
In brief
- Bitcoin fell more than 9% this week, Ethereum 6%, and XRP 15%.
- Traders are selling heavily in anticipation of the end of the traditional four-year bitcoin cycle.
- Analysts believe that institutional adoption could break this historical cycle.
- The Fear and Greed Index plunged to its lowest level in a year.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP plunge heavily
Retail traders remain trapped in an old belief. Historically, bitcoin follows a predictable pattern: a spectacular surge about a year after each halving, then a brutal crash.
The previous high of $67,000 reached in November 2021 fits this scenario perfectly. Four years later, some investors are betting on history repeating itself.
“ I think part of the decline is due to a cohort of market participants sticking to the four-year cycle “, explains Matthew Nay, analyst at Messari.
The troubling timing, combined with uncertainties related to the US-China trade war, is pushing these traders to sell aggressively. Jonathan Morgan of Stocktwits talks about “mechanical selling”: investors who buy before the halving and liquidate when performance disappoints.
Jasper De Maere from Wintermute observes the same phenomenon.
Many retailers continue to use this old strategy: buy before the halving and sell when it doesn't improve.
That dynamic accelerated last Friday when Trump's tariff threats sparked billions of dollars in record daily liquidations.
The repercussions extend beyond bitcoin. The Fear and Greed Index tumbled to 24, its lowest level since 2023. This atmosphere of panic is reminiscent of the major corrections of 2018 and 2022.
A transforming market defies old rules
However, a conviction is growing among analysts: the four-year cycle is a thing of the past. “This strategy is outdated,” says De Maere.
“ The halving no longer makes things happen; miner rewards are tiny compared to total trading volume. » The crypto market of 2025 will no longer have anything to do with that of previous years.
The massive arrival of Wall Street is shaking things up. Bitcoin ETFs, institutional flows and derivatives now eclipse the impact of miners.
“ The halving model is essentially an echo of a younger market “, says Morgan.
Back when miner rewards dictated supply, this was important. Today, ETFs, institutional flows and derivatives eclipse this effect.
Altcoins are also gaining importance and autonomy. The growing convergence between traditional finance and the crypto universe is redrawing the rules of the game. Matthew Nay also remains convinced that bitcoin could return to its historic highs before the end of the year.
Paradoxically, some encouraging signs are emerging. Small investors are taking advantage of this correction to strengthen their positions, accumulating bitcoin at a discount. Despite the prevailing panic, this purchasing dynamic demonstrates a certain resilience and persistent confidence in the long-term potential of the market. This silent accumulation could well set the stage for a future rebound.
The crypto market is going through a zone of turbulence where two visions clash: that of an immutable cycle and that of an ecosystem transformed by institutional adoption. If the believers in the four-year cycle are fueling the current selling pressure, the market fundamentals have profoundly evolved. This phase of fear could ultimately prove to be a strategic accumulation opportunity for investors who look beyond the old rules.
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