The cryptocurrency market is going through a delicate period, between persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions and uncertainties over American rates. In its weekly analysis, Coinbase highlights a significant shift in demand sources, as traditional buyers lose influence. US spot exchange-traded funds now play a central role in supporting bitcoin. However, several indicators show that this demand remains fragile and that the price could retest lower levels.
In brief
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs are becoming the main source of demand in the face of declines from other buyers.
- On October 23, ETFs recorded $635 million in net outflows, increasing pressure on the market.
- Coinbase identifies the $80,000-82,000 area as key support, with a risk of a pullback towards $73,000-75,000.
- Geopolitical tensions, inflation and Fed rate fears are weakening Bitcoin’s outlook.
Bitcoin ETFs now carry the bulk of demand
According to Colin Basco, senior quantitative strategist at Coinbase, institutional demand is going through a transition phase. In the second half of 2026, purchases of Bitcoin treasuries lost strength. US spot exchange-traded funds are therefore taking a more significant role in supporting the market. This development strengthens their influence on price movements, while other sources of demand are struggling to regain their dynamism.
However, ETFs do not guarantee a continued rise in bitcoin. On October 23, funds recorded $635 million in net outflows, among the largest withdrawal days of the second half. This movement coincided with renewed risk aversion and fears of renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. Investors have thus reduced their exposure, despite the central role of funds in market demand.
At the same time, the overall liquidity of cryptocurrencies is showing signs of weakness. The supply of stablecoins, which notably allows investors to have capital to buy digital assets, has decreased by almost $13 billion since its peak in May. Coinbase premium also remained negative in October, according to theBasco analysis. These indicators suggest that US buyers, outside of ETFs, have not yet resumed large-scale purchases.
This situation limits the market’s capacity to absorb sales and sustainably support prices. The negative apparent demand also confirms the weakness of buying pressure. In this context, American funds must compensate part of the lack of participation by other investors. However, recent exits show that their support can vary rapidly when economic conditions deteriorate.
Bitcoin: inflation and the Fed weaken the $80,000 threshold
The macroeconomic context constitutes another risk factor for bitcoin. Coinbase highlights the persistence of inflation and cites an 80% probability of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in December. This outlook could weigh on risky assets, as investors also monitor the central bank’s next move. Geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran add additional uncertainty to this situation.
For Colin Basco, the area between $80,000 and $82,000 represents an important first level of support. It corresponds to the convergence of the 50-day moving average and the cost price of Bitcoin ETFs. This combination could help the price stay within this range despite current pressures. However, a breakdown of this zone would change the short-term configuration and expose the market to a more marked decline.
Coinbase then places the next support between $73,000 and $75,000. This scenario depends in particular on the evolution of economic conditions and the ability of buyers to defend current levels. If fund outflows continue and liquidity remains low, the market may lack support to contain selling. Conversely, an improvement in demand and an easing of risks could help stabilize prices.
Caution therefore remains in order around the $80,000 threshold. ETF flows, liquidity data and Fed decisions are some of the key indicators to watch. None of these elements can, on its own, confirm a sustainable direction. Their joint evolution will, however, give indications on the market’s ability to preserve its support levels.
Options Reveal Increased Demand for Downside Protection
The positioning of institutional investors sheds another light on current risks. Coinbase observes a sharp increase in delta skew to 25, an indicator which notably measures the price difference between certain call and put options. For one-day and one-week maturities, this indicator increased from 5% to 15%. This development reflects a greater demand for protection against a fall in prices.
Investors notably use put options, called puts, to hedge their positions against a possible decline. Against this backdrop, the $75,000 and $73,000 levels focus some of the attention on the options market. This hedging demand reflects short-term concerns related to US monetary policy and international tensions. However, it does not mean that the market will necessarily reach these levels.
Furthermore, Coinbase notes a concentration of more than 2.1 million BTC in an area between $87,500 and $91,700. This concentration could complicate a lasting recovery if the price were to rise towards this range. Investors could then encounter a significant area of resistance, which would limit progress in the short term. The market must therefore contend with support levels close to $80,000 and a resistance zone located significantly higher.
Nevertheless, three-month data provide nuance. Delta skew at 25 has only increased 6% to 10% over this period, suggesting that institutional concerns have not always reflected lasting fear. Market participants may have viewed macroeconomic and geopolitical risks as temporary. The recent increase in the short-term indicator, however, shows that their need for protection has increased before the next economic deadlines.
In the short term, the evolution of bitcoin will depend on the ability of ETFs to maintain their purchases, but also on the possible return of individual investors. Defending the $80,000-82,000 zone will be an important benchmark, while a breakout could open the way towards $73,000-75,000. The next flow of funds, the Fed’s decision and geopolitical tensions will make it possible to better measure the strength of demand and the direction of the market.
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