Bitcoin erases its October gains: How far back can it fall?

Bitcoin erased its gains from the beginning of October by falling to around $83,300 on October 7, after having exceeded $86,400 the day before. The threshold of $81,300 is now the focus of attention, but its loss would only become a real concern with exits from ETFs and loss-making sales by recent investors.

The price of bitcoin loses more than 3,000 dollars

Bitcoin fell as low as around $82,850 during the session, from a high near $85,800. He thus abandons most of his monthly advance after starting October at around 83,700 dollars.

The decline is not limited to the spot market. Forced liquidations reached nearly $696 million across all cryptos in 24 hours, mainly among long positions. This purge amplified a movement already fueled by an unfavorable macroeconomic environment.

Several indicators allow us to measure current fragility:

• Bitcoin is trading around $83,300, down nearly 3% during the session;
• The immediate threshold is between $82,800 and $83,400;
• Around $81,300 marks the breakout level identified by Bitfinex analysts;
• The main liquidation zones are concentrated between $81,700 and $83,300;
• The return above $84,350 would constitute a first signal of stabilization.

The decline remains severe in the short term, but it has not yet broken the entire structure observed since September. Bitcoin notably remains above several medium-term moving averages located between 80,000 and 82,000 dollars.

Why does the $81,300 threshold matter so much?

The $81,000 to $82,000 zone corresponds to the starting point of the September bullish breakout. It is also close to the average acquisition price for investors exposed to US bitcoin ETFs.

A drop below $82,600 would place some of these holders at a loss. This change could slow inflows into funds, or even encourage some recent investors to reduce their exposure.

Bitfinex analysts, however, distinguish a normal correction from a deeper break. Between 84,000 and 81,300 dollars, they consider that bitcoin would test its old resistance from September which became support. This scenario would delay a recovery, without automatically invalidating the trend.

“A sustained move below $81,300, accompanied by ETF outflows and a short-term holder SOPR below 1, would show that recent buyers are abandoning”, estimate-they. In this case, the $77,000 area would come back into focus.

SOPR measures whether transferred bitcoins are sold at a profit or loss. A drop below 1 would indicate that recent holders are, on average, starting to sell their assets at a loss.

October rebound lacked real demand

The rise above $86,000 was based on relatively low volumes. Glassnode estimates that the new capital accounted for less than two-fifths of the recent increase in bitcoin’s realized capitalization.

Holders also took advantage of the move above $85,000 to secure their gains. The share of their deposits towards exchange platforms reached its highest level in a year, strengthening the supply available for sale.

“Trading volumes remain unusually low” on spot platforms and in American ETFs, underlines Frederik Theissen, head of research at Glassnode. Crossing resistance therefore lacked the support necessary to sustainably install bitcoin above $86,000.

The options nevertheless remain oriented towards progress in the medium term. Traders spend more on call options than on downside protections. This configuration reveals still positive expectations, without guaranteeing an immediate rebound.

US rates maintain pressure

The crypto market is also suffering from the rise in American bond yields. The ten-year rate is moving around 5.28%, while Brent oil exceeds $100 and the dollar reaches its highest level since April 2025.

These movements reduce the attractiveness of risky assets. High bond yields increase the cost of capital, while expensive oil fuels inflationary fears and limits the Federal Reserve’s room for maneuver.

The price of bitcoin must now return to the $84,350 to $85,000 zone to ease the selling pressure. Conversely, a sustainable close below $81,300, combined with ETF outflows and selling at a loss, would open up the risk of a return towards $77,000. The technical level alone will therefore not be enough: institutional flows will confirm the rupture or not.