Bitcoin could target $180,000 in 2026, altcoins lag behind

The expected altcoin momentum may not materialize as widely as expected. Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx Research, expects altcoins' usual rally to slow next year, as liquidity is likely to shift away from smaller, speculative tokens and toward a smaller number of established, blue-chip cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin also remains at the center of attention, with projections suggesting it could reach $180,000.

Concentration of liquidity in blue-chip cryptos

Ko warns that investors banking on broad-based altcoin gains could be disappointed. According to him, liquidity will remain very selective and will mainly focus on established cryptocurrencies, benefiting from real adoption and proven credibility in the market. For illustration, the index Altcoin Season currently stands at 37, indicating that altcoins have not yet seen a widespread advance.

Looking ahead to 2026, Ko believes that overall liquidity could provide some support to markets, although divergent central bank policies are likely to limit the impact. He also highlights that the historical correlation between bitcoin and M2 money supply growth has weakened since the launch of ETFs in 2024. In this context, and according to CoinEx Research's central scenario, bitcoin could reach $180,000 by 2026while blue-chip cryptocurrencies would continue to attract capital in a market that has become more selective.

Diverging Views on the Bitcoin Market Cycle

However, analysts remain divided regarding the short-term outlook for bitcoin. Seasoned trader Peter Brandt anticipates a prolonged bear market, recalling that over the last 15 years, cryptocurrency has experienced five major summitseach followed by corrections close to 80%. He believes that the current cycle is still ongoing and the next major bull market could peak around September 2029.

For his part, Ali Martinez analyzes the bitcoin price cycle through historical patterns, taking into account both the timing and the magnitude of movements. Historically, bitcoin advances from a trough to a peak in approximately 1,064 days, before moving back from the peak to the next trough in approximately 364 days. According to this model, the market would currently be engaged in the 364-day bearish phase, suggesting a potential bottom around October 2026, i.e. in approximately 288 days.

Ali Martinez also relies on previous bear markets to estimate the extent of possible declines. The 2017-2018 cycle saw bitcoin fall by around 84%, while that of 2021-2022 resulted in a decline close to 77%. Based on this data, he suggests that the next low point could be around $37,500, corresponding to an average retracement close to 80%.

Crypto Suffers Unusual Q4 Decline and Market Reset

In this context, bitcoin fell by more than 22% during this quarter, going against its usual seasonality. Historically, BTC has often performed well in the fourth quarter, with the majority of years seeing marked increases, with the exception of one quarter with more modest gains. CryptoQuant attributes a large part of this decline to the selling pressure exerted by large holdersincluding $5.1 billion in outflows from ETFs since their peak, followed by continued selling by whales since October.

According to Milk Road, recent market movements suggest that most of the excess risk and weaker positions have now been purged. While this does not automatically guarantee a recovery in 2026, history shows that markets often emerge stronger after this type of deep reset, creating more favorable ground for future growth.