Bitcoin has still not returned to its historic highs, but speculation around the next ATH is starting again. A new analysis based on previous BTC cycles estimates that a record above $120,000 remains possible in the coming months. This projection comes in a climate of high uncertainty, while several analysts still fear a prolongation of the bear market. Between hope of a historic rally and fear of a new correction, the crypto market remains under tension.
In brief
- An analysis based on previous Bitcoin cycles estimates that a new ATH above $120,000 remains possible.
- Analyst Cyclop relies on historical BTC cycles to project a potential rally towards $140,000 to $150,000 before 2030.
- However, several technical indicators are fueling concerns about a longer-than-expected bear market.
- Some analysts consider that a return of Bitcoin towards $40,000 remains possible in the current macroeconomic context.
Historical model projects bitcoin beyond $120,000
As extreme fear returns to the market, crypto analyst Cyclop believes that bitcoin could still follow a cyclical structure already seen during previous bull markets. His analysis is based on an almost identical repetition of BTC cycles since 2015.
He underlines that the bull run from 2015 to 2017 lasted approximately 1,065 days, before a 365-day bear market. The same pattern would then have repeated between 2018 and 2021. Applying this logic to the current cycle, Cyclop considers that bitcoin could reach a peak around $126,000 before entering a new bearish phase. He also states that “bitcoin could bottom out in this bear market by the last quarter of this year”.
The analysis highlights several key projections:
- The 1,065-day bull run between 2015 and 2017;
- A 365-day bear market after the 2017 peak;
- The repetition of the same cycle between 2018 and 2021;
- A projection of an ATH around $126,000;
- The possibility of a new rally between $140,000 and $150,000 before 2030;
- The potential end of the bear market around October 5, 2026.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,830 as investors monitor upcoming technical market movements to see if this bullish scenario can actually be confirmed.
Macroeconomic tensions fuel bearish scenarios
Other analysts, however, take a much more cautious reading of the current market. This is particularly the case of Colin, who believes that “bitcoin has already reached a local high”. According to him, several technical indicators indicate a slowdown in bitcoin's recent rebound.
The analyst notably mentions a rejection on the 200 moving average as well as a break of a major trendline. He also adds “that it is extremely unlikely that bitcoin has already found its low point after only four months”suggesting that the bear market could last much longer.
This caution comes amid a tense macroeconomic climate. In addition, it is necessary to highlight the persistent concerns linked to inflation as well as the geopolitical risks caused by tensions between the United States and Iran.
In this context, Colin considers that a return of bitcoin towards $40,000 remains possible. His reasoning is based on the limited scale of the current correction, estimated at around 53% from the all-time high, while previous BTC bear markets had sometimes recorded falls close to 77%.
The contrast between these two visions illustrates the uncertainty that currently dominates the crypto market. On the one hand, historical cycles continue to fuel expectations of a spectacular new high for bitcoin. On the other hand, technical signals and macroeconomic tensions remind us that the market remains vulnerable to further shocks. The next few months could confirm whether BTC enters an accumulation phase before a new ATH or a longer-than-expected bear market.
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