Is Michael Saylor the only one to see, in his piles of bitcoin, a nearby windfall rather than a rickety castle? Many observers view this project with suspicion, between debt, dilution and fierce volatility. Yet TD Cowen sees something else beneath the scaffolding: a financial architecture capable of transforming accumulation into value per share.
In brief
- Strategy now accumulates over 843,738 bitcoins after its recent strategic weekly massive purchase.
- TD Cowen is now targeting $400 despite MSTR stock still being heavily dented by volatility.
- STRC preferential issues effectively finance bitcoin accumulation while currently strongly limiting shareholder dilution.
- Strategy is also reducing its convertible debt to strengthen financial flexibility in the face of future significant potential turbulence.
Bitcoin: TD Cowen still sees a $400 tower despite dented MSTR
Strategy just purchased 24,869 BTC for approximately $2.01 billion. Its reserves now reach 843,738 bitcoins, or more than 4% of the network's maximum supply. Still, MSTR remains around $164 to $166, far from its yearly high near $457. The market sees a cracked facade; TD Cowen looks at the foundations.
The bank raises its objective from 395 to 400 dollars, or more than 139% of theoretical potential. Indeed, the accumulation is already exceeding expectations for the quarter. The analysts write:
Strategy's treasury operations continue to exceed expectations, with faster-than-expected bitcoin accumulation and accretive balance sheet actions improving BTC per share as well as financial flexibility.
Source: TD Cowen
The real engine of Strategy is hidden in its financial engineering
Saylor's machine no longer relies solely on the purchase of BTC. Strategy now uses preferred stocks, notably STRC, as a carrying column. In the second quarter, the company raised about $1.95 billion, with very little issuance of common stock. Almost all of this money then flowed into bitcoin.
This assembly pleases TD Cowen, because it limits visible dilution. Bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares thus increases from 1.95 at the end of 2025 to 2.21 on May 17, 2026. In other words, Strategy accumulates faster than it dilutes. It’s the detail that changes the architect’s plan.
TD Cowen is now forecasting nearly 100,000 BTC purchased in Q2 alone. However, the model remains demanding. He calls for smooth access to financial markets, lasting confidence from crypto investors and a BTC strong enough to support the entire structure.
Crypto: debt repurchased, balance sheet strengthened, but the crane remains under tension
Strategy also cleaned out its financial basement. The company repurchased approximately $1.5 billion of convertible debt at a discount close to 8%. This operation reduces the refinancing risk and limits future dilution. TD Cowen sees this as a positive signal for shareholders and creditors.
The analysts add:
We view this as an important signal of financial flexibility. We expect continued access to financial markets to support bitcoin accumulation rather than hinder it.
Source: TD Cowen
There remains the downside of the plan. MSTR remains a leveraged bitcoin proxy, as nervous as a crane in gusts. If BTC rises, Strategy amplifies the jackpot. If the crypto market corrects, the same floors may shake.
The levels engraved on the Strategy plans
- Strategy now owns 843,738 BTC, over 4% of the network;
- TD Cowen Sets MSTR Target at $400;
- MSTR remains about 60% below its recent annual high;
- BTC price: $76,701 at time of writing;
- BTC per 1,000 shares now stands at 2.21.
Traditional finance no longer looks at bitcoin as simple graffiti on a banking wall. Giants like Goldman Sachs are now reevaluating their positions on crypto assets. This shift gives Strategy a less isolated, almost institutional setting to defend its colossal project.
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