Bitcoin could end the year in the red for the first time after a halving!

Bitcoin is playing big at the end of the year. For the first time since its creation, the flagship crypto could end a post-halving year in the red. An unprecedented scenario which would call into question one of the historical pillars of crypto analysis: the famous theory of the 4-year cycle. As BTC stagnates below $88,000, investors and analysts are holding their breath. A bearish close would mark a symbolic and potentially structural turning point for the entire market.

An annual close under pressure: the threat of a historic bearish signal

As the end of the year approaches, bitcoin, neglected by investors, seems incapable of closing 2025 on a positive note, a clear break with the usual pattern of post-halving years.

Several concrete elements contribute to this worrying observation:

• An unprecedented negative performance: as of December 27, bitcoin posted a performance of -6.1% since the start of the year. If this trend continues, this year would become the first post-halving year to end in the red;

• A critical technical threshold: bitcoin is currently trading below $88,000, far from the annual opening price of $93,500. This level is seen as a symbolic and technical pivot. Trader Keith Alan (Material Indicators) insists : “it’s the fences that matter the most”emphasizing that the temporary crossing of certain levels only has value if the closing confirms the movement;

• Tensions around the four-year cycle model: this potential setback would call into question the famous theory of the 4-year cycle. Ajay Kashyap, active analyst on alert : “if BTC closes in red, it would be a first in 14 years for a third year of bull market… This would signal a structural change and break the thesis of the 4-year cycle”;

• Volatility compressed by market factors: despite an attempted rebound the previous weekend, bitcoin remained stifled by a tense technical context. In particular, the expiration of a record $24 billion in options volume on December 27 would have acted as a compressive force on the price of btc, preventing any real upward movement.

All of these factors converge towards a clear observation: the risk of a bearish annual close is real, and with it, that of a historic turning point in the way in which the market structures its bullish and bearish cycles.

Technical and seasonal signals that argue for a rebound in 2026

Beyond the pressure exerted by the possibility of a bearish annual close, some analysts note technical and behavioral elements which could, on the contrary, announce a reversal in the trend of bitcoin from the month of January.

Trader Jelle thus identified a particular configuration on the charts in three days: “bitcoin locked in a three-day bullish divergence, just above key support”he said on X. He recalls that the two previous market troughs had been preceded by similar signals. This type of divergence on the RSI indicator could indicate that sellers are losing strength, potentially paving the way for a gradual recovery.

In addition to these purely technical signals, there are elements of a behavioral nature. The BitBull trader mentions in particular a recurring dynamic linked to institutional seasonality: “those who sold at a loss for tax reasons will buy back BTC. Investors will reallocate funds to underperforming assets in January 2026, as they always do ».

This portfolio rebalancing strategy could, according to him, “trigger an exit from the current trend and a move towards $100,000”. A scenario which, if it were to materialize, would give credence to the prospect of a prolonged bullish cycle.

As end-of-year uncertainties weigh on the market, some see it as simply a pause in a larger cycle. A leading analyst predicts a historic bullish decade for bitcoin, despite current turmoil. It remains to be seen whether 2026 will confirm this vision or mark a more lasting shift in post-halving dynamics.