Bitcoin has fallen about 54% since its October 2025 peak near $125,000, significantly less than the 75% to 90% collapses that concluded previous cycles. According to a research note from the investment bank Bernstein published Monday July 6, 2026, this more limited decline reflects an increasing maturity of the market. The bank nevertheless maintains its target of $150,000 for the end of the year, which it itself describes as “ambitious”.
In brief
- Bitcoin has fallen 54% since its October 2025 peak at $125,000, less than the 75% to 90% declines in previous cycles according to Bernstein.
- Strategy acquired 175,000 BTC for approximately $14 billion in 2026, bringing its holdings to 847,363 BTC, and remains structurally a net buyer.
- Combined ETF and treasury company net flows reach $10 billion in 2026, up from $60 billion in 2025.
Why this correction is different from the previous ones
Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, point out that the current decline presents an atypical profile compared to historical bear markets. Previous corrections erased between 75 and 90% of the gains at the peak, over periods of 12 to 15 months. This time, the decline peaks at 54% and only covers three quarters of the cycle peak, a gap that cannot be explained by chance.
The flows confirm this picture, which is less gloomy than it seems. Combined inflows from treasury companies and ETFs reach $10 billion since January 2026, up from $60 billion for all of 2025. For investors tracking bitcoin accumulation by listed companies, Strategy concentrates the bulk of these purchases.
Michael Saylor's company has acquired around 175,000 BTC for almost $14 billion since the start of the year, bringing its total reserves to 847,363 BTC. Its debt is only 13% of the value of its bitcoin collateral, and the next principal repayment of around $1 billion is not expected until the third quarter of 2028. Bernstein therefore considers any forced sale unlikely, making Strategy a structural net buyer in the market.
As for ETFs, 5.5 billion dollars of outflows on a base of 74 billion represent less than 8% of total assets. In an environment where liquidity is concentrated in AI-related stocks, Bernstein believes that this figure gives a greater impression of panic than the reality of the flows.
American bitcoin miners are losing ground, regulation is moving forward
The network's overall hash rate has fallen by around 11% since the start of the year, driven by an accelerated withdrawal of large US listed miners. The latter are reorienting their infrastructures towards data centers dedicated to AI.
Their share of the total hash rate lost more than 40 basis points over the last two quarters, while operators in Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Latin America gained around 100 basis points. Bernstein anticipates that major US miners will abandon bitcoin mining entirely in the medium term.
On the regulatory front, several signals are converging. The GENIUS law on stablecoins is continuing its legislative journey. Perpetual crypto futures are now rolling out in the US via Kalshi and Coinbase.
Bernstein estimates the probability of adoption of the Clarity Act in 2026 at around 50%based on data from Polymarket. Tokenized physical assets have also reached an all-time high of around $52 billion, a sign of the growing depth of institutional crypto markets.
In short, the duration of the correction remains below the usual 12 to 15 months of previous bear cycles. Bernstein monitors the flows to detect “the slightest sign of recovery”. Net buyer strategy, accelerating regulation, contained ETF outflows: the conditions for a turnaround are taking shape. The market will decide if they are enough.
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