Bitcoin recorded a 5% decline after approaching the $100,000 threshold. Let's now look at the development prospects for BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC) price situation
After peaking at $93,400, Bitcoin went through a consolidation phase, which was recently passed. This move allowed Bitcoin to establish a new ATH at $99,661. Interestingly, this price level corresponds to the fourth resistance of the monthly pivot points. Although this threshold has not been reached in the spot market, it is important to note that Bitcoin futures have crossed the psychological threshold of $100,000. Unfortunately, following this slight consolidation, buying interest was not sustained, leading to a drop of approximately 6% in its price at the start of this last week of November. The cryptocurrency has thus returned below the value zone identified as resistance at $98,400.
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is trading around $93,700. The short-term trend of BTC has returned to the decline. However, its medium and long-term trend remains clearly bullish. This observation is supported by the positioning of the 50 and 200 day moving averages, which remain oriented and crossed upwards. As for the upward dynamics of the cryptocurrency, we observe, through the oscillators, a slight weakness, but nothing abnormal. Indeed, it is important to remember that Bitcoin has recently benefited from strong upward momentum, which is often followed by slight corrections, a very common phenomenon.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.
Focus on derivatives (BTC/USDT)
The open interest of BTC/USDT perpetual contracts has evolved in line with the price of its underlying, reflecting a relatively healthy market, with speculator interest mainly oriented towards buying. These observations are corroborated by a financing rate which remains positive. However, a divergence is observed on the CVD side compared to these indicators, suggesting significant short interest on orders placed at the market. As for liquidations, they remain insignificant, but demonstrate a gradual capitulation of buyers.
The heat map of BTC/USDT perpetual contract liquidations highlights significant areas of value on either side of its current price. Above this, a notable zone appears around $100,000. Below that, a broader zone is identified between $92,500 and $90,000, or even up to $85,000. Further down, an area around $80,000 is notable, although the most significant is around $75,000 and $74,000. If the price approaches these levels, it could trigger a large number of orders, increasing the risk of volatility for the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore constitute crucial points of interest for investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts
- If Bitcoin price manages to hold above $91,500, a break of the $98,400 resistance could occur. In this case, continued bullish movement would allow Bitcoin to reach its latest high at $99,500, paving the way for a new ATH. The latter could be at $100,000, or even up to the fourth resistance of the pivot points, identified at $108,307, which would represent an increase of around 15%.
It is important to note that hitting an all-time high makes it more difficult to identify resistance levels.
- If Bitcoin fails to sustain above $91,500, it could find support around $85,000. A prolonged decline could then lead to support around $81,600. Finally, in the event of a more marked correction, the zone between $78,000 and $75,000 would constitute a key support, the crossing of which could lead to a decline of around 20%.
Conclusion
Bitcoin recently went through a consolidation phase and a slight correction after a period of strong growth, reflecting a loss of momentum in the short term. While this may seem concerning, it is important to note that medium to long term trends remain clearly bullish, supported by technical indicators. This type of correction, typical of market cycles after significant movements, suggests a potential for recovery in a favorable long-term context. It will therefore be crucial to carefully monitor price reaction at key levels to validate or adjust current forecasts. Finally, remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria, and that the price of cryptocurrencies can evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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