Bitcoin, often compared to digital gold, is now at a crossroads. As global financial markets scrutinize the decisions of the US Federal Reserve, a possible drop in interest rates could propel the leading cryptocurrency to new heights. In a context of controlled volatility, and after months of stagnation, optimism is reborn: some experts, such as Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments, already see Bitcoin reaching $64,000 in the near future.
A favorable context thanks to the Fed
The imminent announcement of a U-turn in US monetary policy could be the long-awaited catalyst for the Bitcoin market. The Federal Reserve, after aggressively raising interest rates since 2021, is reportedly set to adopt a more accommodative approach. This change in course, expected at the next Fed meeting, would mark the end of a tightening cycle that saw the price of Bitcoin fall from $60,000 to $15,000. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole, believes that this new monetary dynamic would provide fertile ground for a rapid recovery of the digital asset, with a target set at $64,000 if conditions remain favorable. For Edwards, “We are at the dawn of an era opposite to the one that caused Bitcoin to plummet”, which suggests prospects of substantial gains for investors.
The technical data also seem to support this scenario.. If Bitcoin manages to hold its current supports and break above $60,000, a rapid rise to $64,000 becomes plausible. Edwards, however, points out that everything will depend on the absence of negative surprises from the Fed. The fourth quarter, historically favorable to Bitcoin, could thus see the cryptocurrency resume its bullish momentum, after a period of consolidation marked by macroeconomic uncertainties.
A decisive fourth quarter
If Capriole Investments’ predictions are to be true, the fourth quarter could well be the time of year for Bitcoin. Historically, this part of the year has been the most favorable for the queen of cryptos, with average returns of nearly 89%. Charles Edwards points out that market volatility has often worked in Bitcoin’s favor during this period, marking significant rebounds after consolidation phases. With the possibility of monetary policy easing from the Fed, conditions seem ideal for Bitcoin to not only return to its previous levels, but surpass them. Previous post-Fed policy bull cycles and market dynamics suggest a similar scenario for late 2024.
However, some nuances remain. While historical data is encouraging, the current macroeconomic context remains complex, particularly with the rise of uncertainties around traditional markets. In addition, the recent adoption of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has also blurred some on-chain analyses, with significant capital movements disrupting traditional supply indicators. For Edwards, while these fluctuations may create distortions in the short term, they should not hinder the underlying bullish momentum that seems to be taking hold for Bitcoin.
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