Bitcoin has undergone increasing pressure since the return of the trade war launched by Donald Trump. While many hoped to see the assets detaching itself from the influence of Wall Street, reality catches up with markets: the rise in American bond rates slows down initial enthusiasm.
Bitcoin and macroeconomics: a forced marriage that persists
The correlation between bitcoin and the American economy has never been so obvious. Despite the hopes of financial independence, the crypto remains sensitive to external shocks.
The recent fall in the BTC under $ 78,000 in reaction to new American customs taxes is proof of this. Asian and European markets trembled, causing bitcoin in their wake.
Analysts are unanimous : Talking about decoupling is premature. Lennix lai, from OKX, underlines that Bitcoin remains deeply integrated into the conditions of global liquidity.
Even gold, yet considered a refuge value, struggles to detach itself from geopolitical upheavals. The crypto, still perceived as a speculative asset, undergoes the full whip of the trend reversals.
However, some see it as an opportunity. Nick Ruck, from LVRG Research, believes that Bitcoin could ultimately establish itself as “digital gold” once its intrinsic value is better understood. But for the moment, the fundamentals of the market – taxes on mining, unpredictable regulations – continue to weigh. Speculation dominates, and the traders react to the quarter turn.
The bomb for delay in American rates
The yields of treasury bills at 10 years reached 4.5 %, an alarming level. This increase reflects an increasing distrust of American debt, but also a tightening of liquidity. For cryptos, it is a red signal: when money becomes expensive, investors flee the risk.
Peter Schiffan economist known for his anti-cockin positions, sounded the alarm. According to him, without an immediate reversal of the Fed, the markets could undergo a krach comparable to 1987. A perspective that freezes the blood of the holders. Especially since, as Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst, “When the obligations go up and the actions fall, it is because financial stress is settling in.”
What to do in such a context? The most optimistic believe that the current crisis could, paradoxically, strengthen Bitcoin over the long term. If business tensions were to calm down, crypto could experience a spectacular rebound.
The hope of a renewed interest in Bitcoin is also reborn with the depreciation of the Yuan. For the time being, the market remains under pressure, however. The storm rumbles, but after the rain comes the good weather. The signals are disturbing, of course, but the history of Bitcoin has already proven its resilience.
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