The record theft of $6.4 billion suffered by Binance only caused bitcoin to fall by around 4%, compared to almost 11% during an aborted attack in 2018. This resistance above all reflects a new distribution of liquidity: a growing share of BTC now escapes the panic reactions specific to crypto platforms.
In brief
- Bitcoin is resilient to the record Binance hack, unlike its sharp fall during the 2018 attack.
- The growth of the crypto market and the rise of Bitcoin ETFs have helped limit the panic.
- The freezing of nearly $3 billion in stablecoins reduced immediate selling pressure.
- Binance is mobilizing its reserves to cover losses and reassure investors.
- However, more than $3 billion in assets remain under the hacker’s control, which could cause further turmoil.
The Binance shock weighs six times less than in 2018
Bitcoin fell to around $76,400 after the hack announcement, about 6% below its level observed after the Federal Reserve’s decision. In March 2018, an attempted attack on Binance caused its price to fall from 10,740 to 9,690 dollars in a few minutes, while the exchange claimed not to have lost any funds.
The difference is not due to the seriousness of the two incidents. The current theft is estimated at $6.3 billion by Binance and $6.43 billion by Elliptic. It exceeds by more than four times the $1.46 billion stolen from Bybit in February 2025. Its relative weight in the market is nevertheless much lower than an attack in 2018.
Several changes allow us to understand this limited reaction:
- The crypto market is worth around $2.6 trillion, up from just over $400 billion in March 2018;
- U.S. bitcoin ETFs hold nearly 1.3 million BTC, or about 6% of the supply;
- Nearly 3 billion stolen dollars have already been frozen;
- Binance set aside over $6.34 billion to cover losses;
- Part of the missing assets is repurchased on the market or during private transactions;
- Customer funds would not have been directly affected.
Compared to the total capitalization of the sector, the amount of piracy represents approximately 0.25%. It remains considerable for a company, but it is no longer enough to immediately threaten the entire market as a crisis affecting a large platform could do eight years earlier.
Binance asserts that no private key leak has been identified. Its investigation, still ongoing, however discovered several points of compromise after initially mentioning the infected computer of a DevOps engineer.
ETFs insulated part of bitcoin from the panic
The resistance of BTC also comes from the transformation of its holders. In 2018, most exchanges still depended on crypto platforms. An attack on Binance could therefore provoke an almost immediate reaction among investors exposed to the same operational risk.
Spot ETFs have since created a separate channel. Their shareholders buy shares from a traditional securities account and do not directly store their bitcoins on Binance. A suspension of withdrawals from the exchange therefore does not force them to move their funds or sell urgently.
BlackRock, Fidelity and other issuers collectively hold nearly 1.3 million BTC. BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone received $136 million on October 28. Sovereign wealth funds Mubadala and Abu Dhabi Investment Council are also among the institutional investors exposed to the sector.
This request does not, however, cancel the risk of sale. The attack began after the US markets closed. The flows recorded on Thursday therefore do not yet fully reflect the reaction of ETF holders. The data from the following session constitutes a more relevant indicator.
Bitcoin thus benefits from more diversified liquidity, but not necessarily more permanently available. ETFs do not trade during the weekend, while the crypto market remains open. A new sale of stolen assets when traditional markets are closed could therefore test this apparent solidity.
Freezing of stablecoins prevented immediate selling pressure
The nature of the assets stolen also limited the impact. Elliptic a checked the freezing of approximately $2.84 billion, primarily in USDT and USDC. Tether has locked up over 1.56 billion USDT, while Circle has locked up over 800 million USDC.
These funds can no longer be easily sold. Binance is also buying back the missing tokens in order to replenish its reserves. This operation creates a demand likely to partially offset sales linked to piracy.
The danger has not disappeared, however. The hacker would still control around $3.33 billion in assets that cannot be frozen, including 18,270 BTC and more than 500,000 ETH. The bitcoins were distributed among several addresses, without being sent to a platform at the time of the last observations.
The limited decline in BTC therefore does not mean that the market has already absorbed all the stolen funds. Above all, it shows that half of the loot was immobilized before its conversion and that Binance has sufficient resources to avoid, at this stage, a solvency crisis.
The real test will come when withdrawals are fully restored and the hacker eventually attempts to sell off the assets that are still mobile. The maturity of the market cushioned the first shock; it must now prove that it can resist its second wave.
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