The era when Japan's ultra-low rates served as cheap fuel for global speculation now appears to be over. The Bank of Japan has just raised its key rate to almost 1%, a level not reached since 1995. Crypto analysts already agree on one point: the consequences could exceed what the market anticipates.
In brief
- The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate to its highest level since 1995.
- The crypto market remains relatively stable despite this decision.
- The risk of a new shock linked to the Japanese carry trade remains under surveillance.
The Bank of Japan toughens its tone after thirty years of lethargy
On June 16, 2026, the BOJ's monetary policy council voted 7-1 to raise the key rate to approximately 1% effective June 17, 2026. This quarter-point increase brings the rate to its highest level in more than thirty years.
That's not all! The BOJ also confirmed its intention to reduce its purchases of government bonds to the tune of 200 billion yen per quarter until the beginning of 2027. This represents approximately 1.3 billion dollars.
The carry trade is faltering, but the crypto ecosystem refuses to bend
THE BOJ rate hikes historically weigh on the crypto assets. They in fact cause the unwinding of the carry trade on the yen.
Decryption: Investors borrow cheap yen to buy more profitable assets abroad. They thus benefit from the rate differential as long as the currency remains weak. When rates rise, these positions unwind and risky assets (including cryptocurrencies) fall.
This time, this scenario did not happen. THE carry trade on the yen has not caused any significant disruption either in the crypto market or in global stocks. And for good reason, investors refused to panic.
Another explanation: the current increase had already been integrated into the prices before the announcement. In other words, the crypto market has already anticipated this event.
Another factor softened the blow: President Trump's announcement of a deal with Iran this weekend. This triggered a relief crypto rally pushing the price of bitcoin above $65,000. The signing is expected on Friday.
Three macroeconomic variables to watch in the coming days
The absence of immediate correction does not mean a total immunity from the crypto market against this paradigm shift. Investors should watch for a narrowing yield spread between Japanese bonds and U.S. Treasuries.
An aggressive rise in the Yen could prompt large hedge funds to liquidate their collateral assets. The overall liquidity available on the international market remains the main growth engine for bitcoin.
Glassnode reports indicate stable accumulation despite major macroeconomic turmoil in Asia. The reaction of fund managers in New York in the coming days will therefore validate or invalidate this trend.
In any case, Japan has just sent a strong signal to world markets. For bitcoin, the absence of a backlash is perhaps the most notable fact. It remains to be seen whether this resilience reflects a true maturity of the crypto market or simply a temporary calm before a new phase of volatility.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
