While many traders wait for the next altcoin season, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, presents a different perspective. He argues that altcoin season is not a future event to be anticipated but an ongoing cycle that never really ends. The real challenge, according to Hayes, is spotting assets that are already performing well, as many investors fail to recognize winners while momentum is actively underway.
In Brief
- Arthur Hayes believes that the altcoin season is a continuous cycle and that many traders have missed opportunities by withholding their investments.
- Hayes highlighted past cycles including 2017, 2020, and recent activity with Hyperliquid as examples of accessible profits.
- Analysts note that the altcoin market continues to form higher lows and shows signs of an uptrend despite recent corrections.
Missed Opportunities and the Reality of Altcoin Cycles
In a discussion with crypto influencer Kyle Chassé, Hayes pointed out that many traders complain about missing altcoin seasons, but often hold back on their investments when opportunities present themselves. He cited previous cycles in 2017 and 2020 as well as recent activity around Hyperliquid (HYPE) in 2024 and 2025 as examples of attainable gains. Hyperliquid, he noted, entered the market around $2 to $3 and climbed to almost $60. Similarly, Solana saw a sharp fall towards $7 in 2022 but recovered gradually in stages, reaching almost $300 earlier this year. Currently, HYPE is trading at $24.69, while Solana is at $126.
Hayes argues that altcoin season has already happened, but most traders did not participate because they were hesitant to commit capital or accept the associated risk. Each market phase introduces new assets that generate gains, forcing investors to adjust their strategies and focus on emerging opportunities. Those who cling to past cycles often conclude that altcoin season never happened, simply because they did not hold the assets that actually appreciated.
Once again, there has been an altcoin season. You just didn't participate.
Arthur Hayes,
Divergent Expectations and Current Market Trends
Not all traders share Hayes's view. Some are still waiting for a more conventional pattern where price momentum starts with Bitcoin, spreads to Ethereum, and then only to smaller altcoins. Separately, Maen Ftoui, CEO of CoinQuant, believes that established altcoins with exposure to exchange-traded funds, including Ethereum, Solana and XRP, are likely to attract significant investments during the next phase of altcoin gains.
To add to this, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe observed on X that despite recent sharp corrections, the bullish trend in the altcoin market remains intact. From a technical perspective, the market continues to form higher lows, with altcoin capitalization holding at a crucial support level. Van de Poppe expressed confidence that the market is bottoming and anticipates further gains in the coming weeks.
Snapshot of the Current Altcoin Market
According to the latest data from BlockchainCenter.Net, the altcoin season index provides insight into the current market cycle ;
- The index is currently at 35, indicating that a full altcoin season has not yet begun and the market is still in a transition phase.
- It has been 85 days since the last recorded season, showing that the market has been between cycles for almost three months.
- Historically, the longest non-season period lasted 486 days, while the longest recorded altcoin season lasted 117 days.
In terms of daily performance, major altcoins saw modest gains over the past 24 hours: XRP rose 3.8%, Solana gained 0.4%, Ethereum gained 1%, and BNB gained 0.5%. Smaller parts, however, saw significant spikes. Canton (CC) jumped 31%, while Chiliz (CHZ) climbed 15%, both placing among the best performers on CoinGecko during the same period.
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