Missiles are raining down on Isfahan. Tehran is burning, Tel Aviv is holding its breath, Dubai is watching. While the real world wavers, another world stirs. That of crypto bettors. On Kalshi, on Polymarket, we speculate on death, on war, on the edge of chaos. The opportunity is too good to inflate the accounts. But the American platform has just clipped the wings of its traders. And the anger is roaring, fierce, on the networks.
In brief
- Kalshi settled his deal on Khamenei's departure at the last minute before his death was announced, in line with his policy.
- The platform reimbursed all fees and compensated the positions opened after the death of the Iranian guide.
- Six traders on Polymarket are suspected of insider trading after pocketing $1 million before the strikes.
- The suspicious accounts were created in February and uploaded hours before the explosions in Tehran.
Kalshi facing the poisonous jackpot: what if crypto had to choose sides?
The announcement came on a Sunday, brutally: Ayatollah Khamenei was joining his ancestors. The day before, Israeli-American strikes shook Tehran. On Kalshi, a loyal friend of Coinbase, a market was flourishing: “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader”. The probabilities come from climb to 68%.
Major problem: the platform, regulated in the United States, formally prohibits “death markets”. No question of betting on the death of a man, even a supreme guide. Its rules are concrete: in the event of death, the contract is terminated at the last price before announcement. Period.
Tarek Mansour, the founder, steps up to the plate on X:
We do not list markets directly linked to death. When potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death.
The intention is noble, almost puritanical. But in reality, things are seriously stuck. Punters opened positions after the death was announced, betting on a flash rise. They end up with deadweight losses. The crypto community scolds, accuses, insults.
On the networks, Kalshi is called a thief, a killjoy, a dream breaker. The platform does not give way on the bottom, but the fire threatens to consume everything.
Deaths, suspicions and millions: the war between the betting platforms turns into a nightmare
Kalshi does not bend, but takes out the checkbook. The founder details forced generosity: full reimbursement of all market fees, generous compensation for positions opened after death, payment of positions prior to the last price. A desperate attempt to redeem social peace.
We refund all fees for this market. If you have a position from before Khamenei's death, you will be paid at the last price before his death. If you have a next position, we will refund your stake in full.
Tarek Mansour
This generosity, however, falls into a rotten climate. A few weeks earlier, six traders on Polymarket quietly pocketed $1 million by betting on strikes against Iran. Their accounts, created in February, were updated a few hours before the explosions in Tehran.
Suspicions of insider trading, there is talk of leaks from American intelligence circles. Kalshi is not targeted, but the shadow of “too precise predictions” hangs over the entire profession. By wanting to play the coy virgin, the New York platform attracts the wrath of traders. The doubt remains. And the smell of sulfur too.
Kalshi-Polymarket: the war of numbers
- 68%: the probability displayed by Kalshi just before Khamenei's death;
- $1 million: the suspicious earnings of six traders on Polymarket;
- 100%: the reimbursement rate for fees and losing positions at Kalshi;
- A few hours: the time between the suspicious bets and the explosions in Tehran;
- $66,570: price of bitcoin at the time of writing.
Between Kalshi and Polymarket, it's not just a quarrel over ethics. It's a merciless trade war. At the end of December 2025, Kalshi atomized its competitor with a record weekly volume of $2.3 billion. The two crypto betting giants are engaged in a fierce battle. Against a backdrop of missiles, death and greenbacks. The next round promises to be bloody.
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