A bull run for Bitcoin this winter?

Bitcoin is still down 60% year over year, while the S&P500 is down just 13% and gold is down just 6%. When is the next bull run? This winter ?

Feverish correlation

First of all, it should be noted that BTC/USD remains up 93% over two years and 339% over five years. Gold is down 3% over one year. It gleans only 32% over five years, ten times less.

The old sea dogs of finance consider BTC a risky asset. They know very well that many governments are trying to torpedo it, especially in Europe where the promoters of the MiCa law would like to prohibit holding your own private keys.

Unfortunately, bitcoin has tended in recent years to replicate the stock market. It is the ransom of glory. The big fish usually raging on the stock market, raw materials, oil and other markets have come to speculate without qualms. Hodl is not part of their vocabulary.

Such a law would slow the adoption of BTC since it is a frontal attack on its main interest. We bet, however, that the EU will not shoot yet another bullet in the foot. Anyway, only 10% of BTC are on exchanges.

In addition, BTC will not be banned. This is absolutely not the subject of the legal texts currently under discussion on both sides of the Atlantic. Therefore, its role as a store of value will remain.

The big fish will certainly see BTC as a store of value one day. But probably they will wait to have legislative guarantees. After all, competing with the masses for desirable goods was not on the agenda…

Indeed, everyone does not have enough money to access inflation-protecting assets. Impossible to buy prestigious real estate, a painting by a grand master or hire a stock market investment adviser when you only have 5,000 or 10,000 euros on hand.

enter bitcoin

BTC is accessible for any exchange and should make a comeback this winter. The reason being that there is every reason to believe that there will be shortages after Christmas now that Russia has cut off the gas.

The current price per MWh is around 300 euros on the spot market, i.e. 10 times its usual price. And as if that were not enough, the G7 intends to cap the price of Russian oil soon.

Except that Russia, the world’s second largest oil producer, is ready to stop its exports. The price at the pump could therefore also soar well above 2 euros per litre.

Not to mention the escalating situation in Taiwan, in Korea, even in Iran. Uncle Sam is in the oven and in the mill trying to overthrow the Chinese and Russian governments. A winter military confrontation in all these parts of the world would soon bring about the hyperinflationary Great Reset…

Tehran could very easily block the Strait of Hormuz (barely 55 km wide) through which transits 1/3 of the world’s oil. A few hundred mines would suffice. Not to mention the fact that the Persians have become a formidable military power.

Taiwan and South Korea produce more than 80% of advanced electronic chips (less than 7 nm). Countless production chains would be forced to stop without these semiconductors that equip computers, game consoles, smartphones, TVs, cars, planes, washing machines, air conditioners, etc.

The winter will be harsh. And the next ones too… Shortages are written in advance. Hyperinflation looms after 50 years of no inflation above 20% in the advanced world. But this is what hangs in our face a few months from now:

When the north wind comes, tens of millions of people will wonder if the time has not come to embrace bitcoin and take possession of your private keys yourself to escape the pangs of the warlike and dystopian madness of the powerful.

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