Bitcoin had every excuse to collapse further. The market has had to absorb the recent Binance hack, political uncertainty around the US election, geopolitical tensions and a generally nervous macroeconomic environment. Still, BTC continued to hold around one of the most important areas on the chart. That’s what interests me most right now: not the headlines, but how well Bitcoin has performed despite them.
The big picture hasn’t changed
My long-term view remains clear: Bitcoin and gold are scarce assets that can protect against loss of purchasing power and monetary expansion.
Crises do not always destroy markets; they often lead to more debt, more liquidity and inflation.
Bitcoin has held up better than many expected
On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is still showing short-term weakness. The structure is bearish on this timeframe, and this is something I am aware of. But the important point is that the broader bullish scenario has not yet been invalidated
The $80,000–$81,000 must be recovered
Bitcoin lost the daily EMA50, an area I considered important support. For me, the next positive signal would be to reclaim the $80,000–$81,000 region with conviction and, ideally, confirm this recovery on a weekly close.
If BTC can retake this area, the market would start to look much healthier again. Until then, I remain constructive on the higher time frame, but cautious in the short term.
$76,000 is key support
For several weeks, I have been talking about the range between approximately $76,000 and $85,000. This fork remains the one that matters most to me.
The key level is $76,000. As long as Bitcoin continues to defend it, my preferred scenario remains that we see a correction within a broader bullish structure.
We have already seen buyers respond from this region. After everything the market has had to digest, the fact that BTC has not collapsed below this zone is significant. This doesn’t guarantee that the bottom is done, but it tells me that there is still real demand at a significant level.
What happens if Bitcoin loses $76,000?
This is the scenario where I would become much more defensive.
A clear weekly close below $76,000 would be a significant sign of weakness and increase the risk of Bitcoin heading towards the $67,000–$69,000 region.
This does not mean that BTC must fall to this level. Markets do not move with certainty. But if the $76,000 fails, the $67,000–$69,000 area becomes a scenario that should be taken seriously rather than ignored.
This is also why I prefer to react to a confirmation rather than trying to predict each candlestick. A bullish long-term view should never become an excuse to ignore what price is really telling us.
Why I still favor the bullish scenario
Right now, the scenario I have the most confidence in remains bullish, provided Bitcoin continues to defend $76,000.
The market has gone through a rough streak of headlines and yet BTC has continued to hold a major support zone. For me, resilience in the face of bad news is often more informative than strength in the face of good news.
If Bitcoin can reclaim the daily EMA50 and regain the $80,000–$81,000 zone, I will become much more confident that this correction is simply part of a larger continuation.
If not, I will adapt. The goal is not to be bullish or bearish all the time. The goal is to stay aligned with the structure.
Conclusion
Above $76,000: I continue to monitor the broader bullish structure, although the four-hour time frame remains bearish.
Below $76,000 on a weekly close: the risk of a deeper correction towards $67,000–$69,000 increases significantly.
For now, Bitcoin is still holding up. And given the amount of bad news the market has absorbed, this resilience is exactly why I’m not ready to abandon the bullish scenario.
My current card:
• Above $76,000 → broader bullish scenario remains alive
• Recover $80,000–$81,000 → structure begins to improve again
• Losing $76,000 on a weekly close → the likelihood of a deeper correction increases sharply
Will BTC defend $76,000, or will we see a deeper correction?
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