Bitcoin must reclaim its 20-month moving average, located around $87,165, to reinforce the scenario of a new all-time high, according to CryptoQuant. This technical signal, however, remains a condition, not a promise of an increase, while BTC is still moving near 82,000 dollars.
In brief
- Bitcoin must sustainably cross $87,165 to strengthen its chances of reaching a new all-time high.
- CryptoQuant believes that the market correction is over and observes several favorable signals for a bullish recovery.
- Purchases by large holders and the return of positive flows to bitcoin ETFs support this scenario.
- A confirmed crossing of $87,165 could open the way to $121,640.
- Maintaining bitcoin above $80,000 remains essential to avoid a further correction.
Major resistance forms around $87,000
The 20-month simple moving average is the average monthly closing price of bitcoin over the past twenty months. It attenuates short-term movements and helps identify the general direction of the market.
Several levels currently structure theCryptoQuant analysis :
- The 20-month moving average stands at $87,165;
- Bitcoin’s annual opening price reaches around $87,490;
- The upper Bollinger band stands at $121,640;
- The lower band is around $52,694;
- Bitcoin is currently trading near $81,511 during the analysis.
The proximity between the moving average and the price at the start of the year reinforces resistance. Sellers who bought near $87,000 can take advantage of a return to their entry price to exit their positions. Large sell orders were also observed in this area.
Bitcoin lost this moving average in December 2025. CryptoQuant la qualified of “inflection boundary”because its crossing has sometimes marked the transition from an accumulation phase to a more lasting upward recovery.
A simple foray above $87,165 would not be enough to confirm the movement. The market should close sustainably above this zone and then turn it into support. Further rejection would keep BTC at the lower end of its long-term structure.
CryptoQuant believes that the market “reset” is complete
CryptoQuant’s Market Cycle Signals indicator uses monthly Bollinger bands to position bitcoin in its cycle. The space between the lower band and the 20-month average is presented as a “accrual basis”.
According to CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain, the correction following the 2025 high would have sufficiently reset the market. “A little over a year after the historic peak of October 6, 2025, the market has completed its reset”, asserts-he.
The analyst believes that individual sentiment remains too cautious with regard to on-chain data. “While the general public fears that the current $82,442 is the high, the BTC Market Cycle Signals indicator reveals that we are only warming up”he adds.
Another indicator from CryptoQuant supports this reading. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator showed 0.186, up from 0.042 in August. A positive and increasing value reflects, according to its methodology, a strengthening of the upward dynamic.
Large holders have also resumed their purchases. Their holdings, excluding mining platforms and pools, reached 3.03 million BTC, their highest level since November 2025. American bitcoin ETFs became net buyers again over the year after recording up to 83,000 BTC in cumulative outflows.
These elements fuel the scenario of an early bullish phase in which major players position themselves before individuals. However, they do not make it possible to date a possible peak or to predict its exact level.
A new record remains far from automatic
The upper Bollinger band, near $121,640, constitutes a first theoretical objective in the CryptoQuant model. It remains slightly below the record of around $126,200 established in October 2025. Bitcoin should therefore cross several resistances before setting a new high.
The analysis also has an important limitation: Bollinger bands are not designed as stand-alone buy or sell signals. They describe the volatility and position of a price relative to its average, but do not directly take into account Federal Reserve decisions, ETF flows or geopolitical shocks.
In the short term, the support located around $80,400 remains decisive. A confirmed breakout could bring attention back towards $77,000, then $73,500. The 200-day moving average, near $71,000, would then form a deeper defense zone.
The bullish scenario therefore requires two successive confirmations: preserving the 80,000 dollars, then sustainably reconquering the 87,165 dollars. Only after these steps would a return towards $121,640, then towards the all-time high, become technically more credible.
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