The Bitcoin network is now less than 80,000 blocks away from its fifth halving, expected around April 2028. This deadline will divide the subsidy paid to miners, from 3.125 to 1.5625 bitcoin per block, but its exact date will continue to evolve with the pace of network production.
In brief
- The 2028 Bitcoin halving will take place at block 1050000.
- Fewer than 80,000 blocks remain before this deadline.
- The mining reward will increase from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC.
- In 2032, the reward will drop below 1 BTC per block.
- Halving does not guarantee an increase in the price of bitcoin.
Bitcoin halving 2028 will take place at block 1050000
The blockchain had exceeded block 970100 on October 6. There were therefore approximately 79900 blocks remaining before the next halving, which will be automatically triggered at height 1050000.
The date does not appear directly in the protocol. It results from an estimate based on an average interval of close to ten minutes between two blocks. THE main landmarks are now as follows:
- Current height: approximately 970100 blocks;
- Height of next halving: 1050000;
- Blocks remaining to be produced: nearly 79,900;
- Estimated deadline: around April 13 or 14, 2028;
- Current subsidy: 3.125 BTC per block;
- Future grant: 1.5625 BTC per block.
Only the height 1050000 is certain. The April 2028 deadline could move forward or back by several days depending on available computing power and the speed at which miners find new blocks.
Bitcoin adjusts its difficulty every 2016 blocks in order to gradually bring the average interval back to around ten minutes. This mechanism stabilizes the emission in the long term, without imposing an exact duration on each block.
Bitcoin halving 2028 will reduce issuance to 225 BTC per day
With an average of 144 blocks produced daily, miners are currently receiving around 450 new bitcoins per day. After the halving, this issue will drop to almost 225 BTC.
Annual creation will thus increase from approximately 164,250 to 82,125 bitcoins. At the time of the halving, the circulating supply could reach approximately 20.34 million BTC. The annual emission rate will then drop to around 0.4%.
These calculations relate only to the protocol subsidy. Miners will also continue to collect fees paid by users to include their transactions in blocks. Their total income will therefore not automatically be divided exactly in half.
The reduction will nevertheless significantly modify their economy. At constant prices and fees, each unit of computing power will generate fewer bitcoins. Operators with old equipment or expensive electricity could become unprofitable.
Some of the miners could then temporarily stop their machines. The difficulty would eventually adjust downward to keep the network functioning, as it did after previous halvings.
Miners will receive less than one bitcoin per block from 2032
The halving of 2028 will open the last period in which the subsidy exceeds one bitcoin per block. In the next event, expected around 2032, it will fall from 1.5625 to 0.78125 BTC.
This mechanic goes back to the original rules of Bitcoin. The subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks, or approximately once every four years. It was 50 BTC when the network launched in 2009.
It increased to 25 BTC in 2012, then to 12.5 BTC in 2016 and to 6.25 BTC in 2020. The fourth halving, which occurred at block 840000 in April 2024, brought it back to its current level of 3.125 BTC.
The successive reductions gradually bring the supply closer to the ceiling of 21 million bitcoins. The last fractions should however only be issued around 2140, because each halving produces an exponential decrease without immediately reaching zero.
As the subsidy drops, transaction fees will need to take up an increasing share of miners’ revenue. The viability of this model will therefore depend on network usage, the price of bitcoin and demand for available block space.
Countdown does not guarantee any rise in bitcoin
Some investors also follow the so-called threshold “T-500”which corresponds to the 500 days preceding the halving. This period is expected to begin around the end of November 2026 if the current estimate holds.
Defenders of this model point out that the four previous windows studied ended with a higher price 500 days after the halving. “The average describes a small sample, it does not constitute a forecast”however recognizes the site which popularizes this indicator.
Halving reduces the creation of new bitcoins. However, it does not mechanically cause an increase in the price. Demand, liquidity, interest rates, ETF flows and holder behavior also play a role.
Markets can also anticipate the event long before it occurs. The consequences of the 2028 halving will therefore depend less on the countdown itself than on the balance between the new reduced supply and real demand.
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