Bitcoin (BTC), the leading crypto asset by capitalization, closed September at $83,563 and traded at around $84,700 on October 1, according to Bitcoin.com News. Lacie Zhang, head of research at Bitget Wallet, offers a bitcoin forecast for October 2026 of between $78,000 and $95,000. This represents a gap of −8.2% to +11.8% from $85,000, the top of the range further than the bottom.
In brief
- Lacie Zhang places key support at $82,000 and bullish trigger at $87,500 (Bitget Wallet, October 1).
- Bitcoin closes September 54.7% above its realized price, according to calculations based on PlanB data.
- Calendar to watch for the trajectory of bitcoin: US employment on October 2, CPI on October 14 and Fed on October 28.
What price for bitcoin in October?
According to Lacie Zhang, the basic scenario for the price of bitcoin (BTC) will from $78,000 to $95,000 in October. A clean break above $87,500 would open the way to bitcoin at $95,000. On the other hand, a lasting break below $80,000 would weaken the uptrend.
Tremplin.io calculated the crypto spreads since $85,000.
| Threshold | Gap from $85,000 | Role |
| $82,000 | −3.5% | Key support |
| $87,500 | +2.9% | Bullish trigger |
| $95,000 | +11.8% | Top of the range |
From $85,000, bitcoin should therefore fall by around 3.5% to return to $82,000. A move to $87,500, on the other hand, would represent an increase of 2.9%. Reaching $95,000 would imply an increase of 11.8%.
What this range doesn’t say: the probability of each outcome. $17,000 wide, it describes a framework, not a certainty.
What indicators can influence the price of bitcoin in October?
The realized price is the average price at which bitcoins last changed hands. Crypto analyst PlanB estimates it at $54,000. From this estimate, Tremplin.io calculates that the monthly close is approximately 54.7% above.
Ahead, the 200-week moving average leaves the realized price 26.6% above. The latter is close to $66,000.
As for the US Bitcoin ETFthey lost $148.7 million on September 30. Fidelity tops the list with $125.6 million in output. According to Farside Investorsthis is the first exit after nine sessions of entries valued at nearly $3.08 billion.
Note that the Ethereum and Solana ETFs show a significant decline. However, an exit session does not distinguish profit taking from a real withdrawal. These figures therefore do not measure the intention of crypto investors.
What macroeconomic events to follow for bitcoin in October 2026?
THE BLS publishes the September job this Friday, October 2 at 2:30 p.m. Paris time. That of August showed 162,000 job creations. Which led to a decline in bitcoin about 2%, under $80,000, depending on Yahoo Finance.
A stronger-than-expected job market could reinforce expectations of a restrictive monetary policy from the Fed. Which would weigh on risky assets like bitcoin. Conversely, a marked slowdown in employment would revive expectations of monetary easing.
Good to know: the Fed raised its key rate by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026, to 3.75–4%.
Lacie Zhang nuances the seasonal effect of October:
Seasonality alone is not an investment thesis.
Lacie Zhang, Head of Research, Bitget Wallet, quoted by Bitcoin.com News, October 1, 2026
Three dates will therefore punctuate the trajectory of bitcoin: the American employment report this Friday, October 2, inflation (CPI) on October 14 and the Fed decision on October 28. The key thresholds of $82,000 and $87,500 will serve as benchmarks, to be closely monitored in the coming days for any crypto investor.
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