Bitcoin didn't give a gift this year. On December 25, in full “festive” liquidity (that is to say almost empty), the price slipped below $87,000 before rebounding timidly. And the psychological gauge of the market has hardened: fear has gone into extreme mode.
In brief
- Bitcoin fell below $87,000 over Christmas, pushed down by low liquidity and ETF outflows.
- Sentiment deteriorated to the point of extreme fear, making the market particularly unstable.
- Despite everything, on-chain suggests fatigue among sellers, with a risk of a rebound as rapid as it is violent.
A market that is emptying… and it can be seen on the graph
When the books thin out, bitcoin gets nervous. Not necessarily because everyone sells. But because a few orders are enough to make a fuse, trigger a cascade of stops, then erase the movement as if nothing had happened. This is the signature of periods of low liquidity, typical of public holidays.
In terms of levels, the scenario has a taste of déjà vu: attempts at recovery come up against a zone of resistance $88,000–89,000. XWIN Finance speaks of a “heavy” ceiling, reinforced by options positioning, and of a market in “mild downtrend” with a score of 34/100 on its Trend Index.
Result: volatility that appears “calm” on the surface, but which can bite very quickly. In this type of configuration, bitcoin does not warn: it hesitates for a long time, then it decides suddenly, often at the moment when everyone thinks that “nothing is happening”.
Bitcoin ETFs make the weather, and it remains gray
The real heavyweight of the moment is ETF flows. During the last session mentioned, around 2,900 BTC (around $251 million) would have left spot products, extending a sequence of withdrawals which weighs on the price and on morale.
This detail matters: Bitcoin ETFs have become a thermometer of “institutional” request in the short term. When it comes out, the spot market finds itself carrying the effort alone. And during the holidays, he doesn't always have his back. Several media outlets have also highlighted outflows on ether ETFs, which maintains an atmosphere of seasonal disengagement rather than pure panic.
But not everything is uniformly negative. “Diversification” flows are appearing elsewhere (products linked to Solana, and certain vehicles around XRP). Said another way: money does not necessarily leave cryptohe moves. And this shift is sometimes enough to make bitcoin temporarily less desired.
Beneath the fear, signs of sales fatigue
Extreme fear is real: the “Fear & Greed” touched 24 around Christmas, and some records indicate that it remained in the extreme zone on December 26 (around 20).
Yet beneath the surface, the picture is less hysterical. XWIN highlights on-chain signals that look more like a salesperson fatigue only a capitulation: weak influx of whales towards the exchanges, network activity still sluggish. Translation: the big holders don't seem to be frantically pressing “sell”, but demand hasn't really returned either.
And there is an almost ironic detail: while the market trembles, “on-chain dollars” accumulate. The capitalization of stablecoins has risen to a record close to $310 billion. It's trackside fuel. Not a promise of immediate takeoff, but a reserve of power that makes the market susceptible… to a surprise, in one direction or the other.
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