Bitcoin: Whales suspend their accumulation

Over the past week, approximately 5.23 million BTC has been held by bitcoin whales. Their wait-and-see attitude precedes numerous decisions capable of taking the price out of its range between $77,500 and $80,000.

Bitcoin whales freeze their 5.23 million BTC

The holdings of large Bitcoin addresses barely increased for seven days. Analyst Ali Martinez identified this stability using Santiment data.

Such an observation does not mean that the whales did not carry out any transactions. Acquisitions and disposals can be offset in the total balance. Above all, it reveals the absence of significant accumulation or net distribution.

This caution precedes five timesimportant nces :

• The US producer price report is due on September 10;
• Consumer inflation will be released on September 11;
• Senate plans procedural vote on CLARITY Act on September 15;
• The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary decision on September 16;
• The Bank of Japan will then decide on its own rates.

These events partly justify the expression of “ten chaotic days” used. They can change bond yields, the dollar and investors’ appetite for cryptos.

Inflation could decide between the Fed and the markets

Traders estimated the probability of a US rate hike in September at almost 60%. However, a large part of the economists questioned anticipated a maintenance of the key rate.

Inflation figures can separate these two scenarios. An index higher than projections would consolidate the hypothesis of monetary tightening. Bond yields would then rise and put further pressure on bitcoin.

Conversely, a slowdown in prices would lower expectations of rate hikes. This scenario would support risky assets, however it could not guarantee an immediate evolution of BTC.

Oil tensions complicate forecasts. Thus, Brent has exceeded 100 dollars, while the increase in energy prices fuels inflationary fears. According to some datamarkets are also monitoring a possible rate hike in Japan.

A restrictive decision by the Bank of Japan would strengthen the yen and reduce certain transactions financed in this currency. This progression could trigger sales in several markets, including cryptos.

The CLARITY Act adds political uncertainty

The US Senate is also scheduled to consider a motion relating to the CLARITY Act on September 15. This ballot aims to limit debate and allow formal examination of the text.

It is therefore not a definitive vote on the law. This motion requires 60 votes, while the Republicans have 53 seats. Democratic or independent support remains essential.

This adoption would improve the regulatory outlook for the crypto sector in the United States. A rejection or further postponement would rather consolidate doubts about the ability of Congress to vote on the text during this year.

This political deadline can affect sentiment, however its effect remains difficult to isolate. Inflation data and the Fed’s decision would continue to have a more direct influence on global liquidity.

Bitcoin remains stuck below $80,000

Bitcoin has been moving between $77,500 and $80,000 for almost a week. Every attempt to break above the upper bound failed, as buyers defended the lower zone.

This reinforcement does not make it possible to predict the direction of the next exit. A sustainable close above $80,000 would consolidate the bullish scenario. However, a break of $77,500 would pave the way for a significant correction.

The immobility of Bitcoin whales therefore represents a waiting signal, not an immediately bearish sign. A week of stability also remains too short to confirm a coordinated strategy of large holders.

Their reaction after the release of inflation data and the Fed meeting may provide more information. A simultaneous increase in their holdings and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could support the scenario of a recovery. A net distribution of around $80,000 would, on the contrary, reflect persistent resistance.