This August 28, 81,700 bitcoin options expire on Deribit. Said options have a notional value of $6.44 billion. Indeed, the maximum pain price was located in the range of 68,000 and 70,000 dollars, significantly below the current price of bitcoin. This crucial deadline, however, did not lead to an immediate move towards this level.
In brief
- The expiry brings together 81,700 BTC options for $6.44 billion in notional value.
- Call options represent 44,639 contracts, compared to 37,061 put options.
- Bitcoin remained close to $80,000 despite a “maximum pain” between $68,000 and $70,000.
- The September deadline could be nearly double that amount.
The $6.44 billion does not represent capital exchanged
The 81,700 options expired today symbolized approximately a fifth of all open positions regarding bitcoin on Deribit. Thus, their notional value reached 6.44 billion.
This amount assesses the theoretical value of bitcoin to which the contracts provide exposure. Indeed, this does not mean that the $6.44 billion passed from one hand to another during the settlement. A significant portion of options expire without any value if their strike price remains too far from the price of bitcoin.
Nearly 62% of contracts relating to this deadline could then expire worthless, according to analyst Frank Hepworth. The amount paid in reality was therefore well below the overall notional value published.
This operation brought together 44,639 call options against 37,061 put options. With this in mind, the ratio between the two types of options was set at 0.83. Call options thus represented nearly 55% of contracts, compared to 45% for put options.
Splitting can express a more optimistic position, because a call option often gains value if the price goes beyond its strike price. However, it is not a sufficient directional projection. Thus, investors have the possibility of using these contracts to hedge another position, sell volatility or participate in the construction of a market-neutral strategy.
Bitcoin: Maximum pain prices of $75,000 and $80,000 concentrate positions
A major portion of the call options were centralized around the strike prices of $75,000 and $80,000. These two levels respectively reflected $236 million and $157 million of the notional value, according to the data provided.
The two exercise prices therefore combined $393 million in call options. This sum is equivalent to almost 6.1% of the notional value of the entire maturity. Furthermore, it should be noted that more than $500 million of positions were less than 5% of the price of the main crypto before the settlement.
This centralization could have an influence on the hedging operations of market makers. Indeed, an intermediary specializing in the sale of call options can acquire bitcoin or futures contracts if the price rises, then reduce its coverage when it falls. These readjustments can increase a move or, conversely, stabilize the price near a widely used strike level.
The exact consequence, however, depends on the net exposure of market makers to the price change. This variation is called “gamma”. The raw notional value does not provide insight into whether they might buy or sell bitcoin as this deadline approaches. It would therefore be excessive to expound on the $6.44 billion as a force that could immediately move the market.
The overall trend in derivative products, however, remained favorable to call options. The weekly report of Block Scholes published by Deribit revealed a premium granted to call options for these maturities which goes up to 90 days. The funding rate of perpetual contracts was also positive following the bitcoin rebound.
Bitcoin does not converge towards its maximum pain price
The pain price of this expiration date was between $68,000 and $70,000. It is a level that indicates the price at which a majority of options expire worthless. Such a situation theoretically maximizes the losses accumulated by contract buyers.
Before the settlement, bitcoin was trading around $79,000. A correction towards $70,000 would then require a decline of nearly 11.4%. The price would lose around 14% to reach the lower threshold of $68,000.
This situation did not materialize in the hours surrounding the deadline. Under the terms of the settlement, bitcoin could trade in a daily range between $78,600 and $81,300, according to data from CoinGecko. It could then remain at around 12% of the maximum pain price.
The difference indicates that the maximum pain price is not a market target. Its calculation is based on the distribution of open positions, without taking into account the price paid for options, associated hedging, contracts already closed, nor services performed on other exchanges.
Large prior maturities have not systematically triggered a sharp decline. For example, an expiration of 15 billion during the month of June 2025 produced a limited reaction, despite a significant gap between price and the maximum pain price. Also, another deadline of $13.3 billion last December was paid off without a movement equivalent to its size.
The September deadline becomes the next point of vigilance
It would therefore be essential for the market to now be able to watch how investors rebuild their positions following the settlement. September options already represent a sum close to double today’s expiry.
Strike prices will remain particularly important. The first would serve as a hedging zone in the event of a decline, while a lasting stabilization greater than the second would change the value of a significant portion of call options still open.
The diffusion of macroeconomic indicators and expectations relating to monetary policy can nevertheless have more weight than just option flows. The expiration of $6.44 billion above all reveals the growth of the bitcoin derivatives market. The consistency observed after the settlement attests that the notional value and the maximum pain price are not sufficient for a forecast of the next direction of BTC.
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