Has bitcoin really bottomed out, or is the market poised for another wave of capitulation? While investors hope to see the correction run out of steam, Michael Terpin, historic figure in the crypto ecosystem and author of Bitcoin Supercycledampens expectations. According to him, the purge is far from over: BTC could still fall to $40,000 to $50,000 before starting a new bullish cycle. A projection based on his model of “Four Seasons of Bitcoin”built around the rhythm of halvings.
In brief
- Faced with the current market correction, historic investor Michael Terpin anticipates a final phase of capitulation bringing the price of Bitcoin back to the $40,000 to $50,000 zone.
- Based on the calendar model of the four-year halving cycle, this temporal purge is expected to reach its lowest point around the beginning of October.
- Despite this short-term downward pressure, the law of decreasing returns and the strategic wait-and-see attitude of institutional investors are paving the way for a healthy market recovery.
- Longer term, the asset’s fundamental trajectory remains deeply bullish, targeting a new high between $180,000 and $300,000 by 2029.
The 4-year cycle time clock and the bitcoin capitulation deadline
At the heart of the thesis defended by Michael Terpin is strict compliance with the four-year cycle based on the bitcoin halving, a mechanism for halving the rewards of mining specialists which causes a periodic supply shock. The expert firmly rejects speculation of an early low point already reached after a few weeks of decline.
Asked about the temporal structure of market phases, Terpin declared : “hoping that a decline will only last six weeks is absurd”. The temporal and historical analysis is thus based on several key benchmarks:
- The historical duration of recessions: bear market phases following bull runs systematically extend over a period of 9 to 11 months;
- The precedent of the 2021-2022 cycle: after having recorded a peak on November 10, 2021, the price reached its absolute low point exactly one year later, on November 10, 2022, during the bankruptcy of FTX;
- The deadline for the final capitulation: market lows generally occur 12 months after the peak, placing the time window for the ultimate capitulation around the beginning of October.
According to this calendar mechanism, the market has not yet reached the final stage of sellers running out of steam. The manager of Transform Ventures anticipates a “ultimate zone of pain” likely to drive the most impatient investors out of the market. This exact timing corresponds to the period when the market completes its purging phase before being able to rebuild solid foundations for the next cycle.
Decreasing returns and the target level for the bottom of the market
In terms of price levels and market structure, Michael Terpin’s analysis is based on the law of decreasing returns and losses. As bitcoin’s capitalization matures, the magnitude of percentage corrections decreases with each cycle compared to historical declines of 80% to 85%. “Each cycle presents diminishing returns and losses”explains Michael Terpin. “In my book Bitcoin Supercycle, I predicted a 60% to 70% decline from the peak, with my best estimate around 66%, or around $42,000”.
The investor is now reevaluating his target range for the market low between $39,000 and $55,000, while warning that a temporary capitulation phase could bring the price back to contact with the bottom of the $40,000 zone.
Regarding the attitude of major institutional players, Terpin believes that they will not seek to blindly guess the exact low point. Large capitals will wait for clear confirmation of the exhaustion of selling pressure before proceeding with aggressive accumulations. This phase of uncertainty and marked volatility will precede the transition to the sixth bitcoin cycle, during which the most fragile hands will give up their tokens.
Supercycle prospects and the trajectory towards $300,000
Despite the severity of the short-term correction scenario, the long-term vision developed by the author of Bitcoin Supercycle remains deeply optimistic. Terpin adopts a very clear positioning on the financial markets by claiming to be “short term seller, long term buyer”. For the expert, the current purge phase is only the necessary transition before the next major expansion phase begins. He estimates that the four-year cycle will remain relevant for the next twenty years before gradually stabilizing in the form of a lasting supercycle.
For the next cycle which will extend until 2029, the investor’s numerical projections show a very significant upside potential. In a conservative scenario, Terpin anticipates a market peak around $180,000, while a more marked bullish acceleration could propel the first crypto to the threshold of $300,000. Looking further ahead, the analysis even envisions the possibility of reaching the million-dollar mark by 2033, driven by planned scarcity and global adoption.
The perspective outlined by Michael Terpin invites investors to strategic rigor based on patience and risk management. While a drop below $50,000 to $40,000 constitutes a testing scenario for general market sentiment, it would fit perfectly into bitcoin’s structural history.
Between the strict temporality of the halvings calendar and the strategic wait-and-see attitude of institutional investors, the coming months will impose a clear distinction between short-term fluctuations and the fundamental value of the asset. For savvy investors, the challenge will not be to give in to the prevailing panic, but to assess whether this ultimate pain point represents the last opportunity for accumulation before the start of the next expansion movement.
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