Polymarket claims that its rival Kalshi copied a dozen of its product launches, and goes so far as to suspect physical surveillance of its New York offices. The company compiled an internal file, tinted its windows, and reported the matter to the press. The predictive markets industry has never been so fiercely contested.
In brief
- Polymarket has compiled a file called “The Imitators”, listing 12 suspicious incidents involving Kalshi.
- In April 2026, Kalshi overtook Polymarket with $5.42 billion in volume from $1.99 billion.
- Kalshi and his investor Paradigm consider these accusations “delusional” and “laughable”.
Imitations too punctual to be fortuitous
Polymarket cites several timing coincidences that tipped him off. On February 12, the platform organized a free food distribution in New York; Kalshi had launched a similar operation with coupons nine days earlier.
Same scenario with perpetual futures contracts: Polymarket planned an announcement on April 21, and an hour before, The Information site revealed that Kalshi was preparing exactly the same thing.
“ There were a few too many coincidences Polymarket marketing director Matthew Modabber told the New York Post. “ Their imitations are malicious. »
The geographic context adds a layer of suspicion. Paradigm, the venture capital fund backing Kalshi, rents office space across the street from Polymarket's headquarters in SoHo, with partial views of the floor and, according to internal sources, some screens.
In response, Polymarket tinted its windows this spring. Employees have privately raised the possibility of Kalshi's “informants” within the company itself.
Kalshi contests, but the market has already decided
Neither Kalshi nor Paradigm are impressed by these accusations. Jack Such, a spokesperson for Kalshi, called the affair “almost delusional”, specifying that the surveillance product in question had been in development since 2024 and that a trailer published on April 13 on X had probably informed The Information.
A Paradigm spokesperson called concerns about surveillance “laughable.”
No public evidence of espionage exists to date.
What is documented, however, is the commercial balance of power. In April 2026, Kalshi surpassed Polymarket in trading volume for the first time: $5.42 billion versus $1.99 billion, according to Dune Analytics.
However, the two platforms together dominated the market in March with a record volume of 25.7 billion. This rivalry also takes place in a tense regulatory context: Kalshi has already put Polymarket on notice to strengthen its KYC controls, under penalty of having to close its offshore platform, pressure which has only worsened relations between the two players.
In short, this case illustrates the brutality of a market which is reaching maturity. Record volumes, Congressional investigation, product wars: Polymarket and Kalshi compete for every point of market share. Accusations of espionage, whether founded or not, reflect a real tension between two visions of the industry. For the moment, no proof has emerged, but the sector of predictive markets has probably not finished fueling the headlines.
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