Bitcoin crossed the $79,000 mark on Thursday for the first time since January, rekindling investor appetite. Behind this rebound, VanEck analysts identify several technical indicators which, historically, have preceded significant increases. But how far can this dynamic go?
In brief
- Bitcoin surpassed $79,000 this week, its highest level since January.
- The funding rate fell to -1.8%, its lowest level since 2023, a historically bullish signal.
- Another positive signal is the recovery of the hash rate after three consecutive episodes of decline.
Bitcoin hits its highest level since January
In a report published Friday, analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush of VanEck paint a particularly optimistic picture of the Bitcoin market.
The two experts sifted through the on-chain data of the main crypto and drew an unambiguous conclusion: the technical conditions met today closely resemble those which preceded strong increases in the past.
First signal scrutinized: the hash rate. It currently stands at 985.5 EH/s as a 30-day moving average, a decline of 7.5% compared to the historic record of 1,065.7 EH/s reached at the end of November. Over the last five months, the network suffered no less than three consecutive episodes of decline. The most recent ended on April 15, after 16 days of pressure and a maximum fall of 6.7%.
However, it is precisely the history behind these withdrawals that is of concern. Of seven similar episodes recorded, six were followed by a price increase within 90 days, with a median gain of 37.7%. A ratio that is difficult to ignore.
Beyond the hash rate, a second indicator attracts attention: the funding rate. Falling to -1.8%, its lowest level since 2023, it sends a signal that the markets know well.
Indeed, since 2020, periods of negative funding have generated an average return of 11.5% over 30 days, compared to only 4.5% in normal times. Better yet, when that rate dipped below -5%, gains jumped to 19.4% over 30 days, and up to 70% over 180 days.
A market that is repositioning itself in depth
Beyond technical signals, the behavior of institutional investors also deserves attention. After five straight weeks of capital outflows, amounting to $4 billion evaporating between January 24 and February 21, Bitcoin spot ETFs have posted positive net flows in six of the last seven weeks. A clear turnaround, which reflects a renewed confidence of major market players.
In terms of volumes, transfers reach $48.5 billion daily, or the 81st percentile historically. However, they mark a decline of 5% over one month, a sign of volatility which is subsiding, and of a market which is catching its breath before, perhaps, a new impetus.
In this context, the on-chain data relayed by Santiment adds an additional layer of interest. Large whales are showing a marked increase in activity in recent days as bitcoin approaches $80,000. This type of behavior has often preceded large price movements in the past, although no indicator guarantees direction.
At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around $78,100, down slightly by 0.8% for the day. Its progression nevertheless exceeds 11% over 30 days, according to CoinGecko.
The convergence of these signals, hash rate recovery, negative financing, return of institutional investors and whale activity, paints a picture that few analysts dare to ignore. It remains to be seen whether the market will be able to transform these indicators into a new sustainable bullish phase, or whether caution will be required in the face of the macroeconomic uncertainties which still hover over global markets.
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