Bitcoin has already risen sharply: Is it too late to buy it?

In recent hours, bitcoin quickly jumped to $79,461 before stabilizing around $77,000. Indeed, this increase has challenged investors to the decisive question: should we take advantage of this level to buy? Grayscale clearly gives a positive answer to this question. So Zach Pandl, head of research at the crypto asset manager, sees this current market structure as an opportunity for strategic acquisition. His argument is based on three signals: the fundamental adoption of cryptos, the position of bitcoin in its market cycle and the evolution of macroeconomic risks. These factors could therefore reshape the outlook for bitcoin.

Grayscale sees favorable buying window despite market hesitation

While bitcoin has reached $79,500, Zach Pandl has just published a study this Friday, August 21 in which he immediately refocuses the question relating to the timing of acquisition around long-term fundamentals. He recalls Grayscale’s cautious position.

On this subject, he declared : “We believe that these three factors taken together indicate that current prices could offer a favorable entry point for investors with a long-term horizon. Structural adoption momentum remains intact, we are well into the bear market, and the macroeconomic outlook appears generally favorable. The future will tell us, obviously”.

Therefore, the crypto asset manager usually discourages wanting to consider the peaks or troughs precisely. Grayscale then recommends inserting bitcoin into a diversified portfolio. To illustrate this first observation, the company indicates that the structural adoption trajectory remains completely intact despite the decline observed since the historic peak of October 2025.

Grayscale continues to analyze the positioning of bitcoin in its repeating cycle of growth and price squeeze, beyond the long-term adoption trajectory. Along with stocks and bonds, the leading crypto produces no cash flow, dividends or interest payments. Thus, traditional valuation procedures are simply inapplicable in this context.

Likewise, this situation directs the examination towards the analysis of cycles. For Grayscale, the ongoing bear market has reached a ten-month duration. Following crypto history, the previous four bear cycles have an average and median duration between 11 and 12 months. Such a statistical decline reveals that the market has undergone a prolonged bearish stage. However, this phase is shallower than other past cycles, suggesting that most of the corrective momentum is now in its final phase of completion.

To support its analysis of the solidity of long-term structural adoption, Grayscale relies on three essential factors:

• The explosion of public deficits: the American public debt reached 40.03 billion dollars (including 32.28 billion held by the public as of August 20), which mechanically fuels the demand for assets with a strictly limited monetary mass;
• Banking integration of blockchain: the growing use of this technology within traditional financial services consolidates the overall infrastructure of the network;
• Generational changes: the evolution of behavior among new investors is profoundly reconfiguring the classic rules of portfolio allocation.

The Federal Reserve and market metrics under close scrutiny

The third factor determined by the asset manager is related to the general macroeconomic environment. It pays particular attention to real interests as well as the direction chosen by the American Federal Reserve. During its July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) chose to maintain the federal funds rate in the range between 3.5% and 3.75%, while three members of this committee declared themselves in favor of an additional increase of 0.25 percentage point.

Such a contradiction at the level of the central bank constitutes a crucial element for the majority of investors. This is why Grayscale openly emphasized that a return of monetary policy tightening and rate hikes would further expose bitcoin to further downward pressure.

Summarizing all of these factors in a statement, Zach Pandl reiterated : “Investors looking to determine whether now is the right time to buy bitcoin should consider structural adoption trends, the state of the cycle, and macroeconomic risks. In our opinion, the combination of these three factors makes the current period a favorable entry point”.

The current rebound which took the price of bitcoin to $79,461 this Friday August 21 before a slight drop towards the $77,000 zone is justified by the conjunction of numerous institutional and technical factors. From this perspective, the careful study of the flows shows that it is a movement fueled by solid acquisitions, covering of short positions, without forgetting the massive accumulation of incoming flows on ETFs.

However, analysts warn of this upward dynamic. The explosion of the price to high thresholds brings a significant portion of the tokens in circulation into a situation of potential capital gain. Thus, the transfer of these coins to exchanges by investors who wish to realize their gains would generate renewed selling pressure, slowing down the bullish momentum in the short term.

A strategic entry point subject to long-term trade-offs

This diagnosis proposed by Grayscale cannot be analyzed as an absolute guarantee of a definitive peak already reached. It should be seen as mapping a potential window of opportunity for cautious investors.

By combining the temporal maturity of the down cycle, the resilience of institutional adoption channels and relative stability of interest rates, the market offers a considerably attractive risk-return profile.

However, the materialization of a consistent and sustainable rally would depend on the ability of buyers to absorb immediate profit-taking while maintaining a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s future guidance.