The quantum timetable is tightening. Researchers at the California Institute of Technology estimate that a usable quantum computer could emerge before 2030. Such a projection shakes up established predictions and revives questions around the security of cryptographic systems, including blockchains. As technical advances accelerate, the prospect of a shift ceases to be remote.
In brief
- A breakthrough from researchers at the California Institute of Technology suggests that a workable quantum computer could emerge before 2030.
- A new architecture greatly reduces technical requirements, from millions to just 10,000 to 20,000 qubits.
- This technological breakthrough is accompanied by so-called “ultra-efficient” error correction, changing the outlook for the sector.
- At the same time, recent work suggests the capacity of quantum to weaken the encryption of the Bitcoin network.
A technological breakthrough that drastically reduces needs
As quantum computing targets bitcoin and messaging applications, Caltech researchers, in collaboration with startup Oratomic, move forward that a working quantum computer could require just 10,000 to 20,000 qubits, compared to millions previously estimated.
This breakthrough is based on a new approach to error correction. As John Preskill explains: “We are developing new architectures for neutral atom quantum processors, which significantly reduce the resources needed for error-tolerant quantum computing”. He adds: “This advancement makes me optimistic that truly useful quantum computing will soon become a reality”.
This progress is based on several key innovations:
- The use of neutral atom systems to improve the stability of calculations;
- The manipulation of qubits via lasers called “optical tweezers”;
- An ability to connect qubits over long distances;
- Drastically reducing the resources required thanks to a new architecture.
Manuel Endres, a physics professor at Caltech who recently created the largest array of qubits ever assembled, precise : “unlike other quantum computing platforms, neutral atom qubits can be directly connected over long distances”.
He also highlights the unexpected effectiveness of the system: “the level of efficiency is even surprising. This is what we call ultra-efficient error correction”. Concretely, this method would make it possible to construct a logical qubit with around five physical qubits, compared to nearly a thousand with traditional approaches.
Increased pressure on the security of bitcoin and other cryptos
This advance comes in an already tense context for cryptography. A recent article from Google evoked the possibility of a quantum computer breaking the Bitcoin network's encryption in just nine minutes, with resources far lower than past estimates. At the same time, the company is calling on developers to adopt post-quantum cryptography (PQC) solutions now, without waiting for the threat to become real.
Google has also set a clear horizon by announcing that it is aiming for a transition to these standards by 2029, estimating that the quantum frontiers could be closer than expected. This convergence between academic advances and industrial projections reinforces the idea that the adaptation window for blockchains, in particular Bitcoin, could be shorter than expected.
As technological barriers fall, the question is no longer if quantum will pose a threat, but when. Between scientific optimism and strategic prudence, the crypto ecosystem finds itself faced with an imperative: to anticipate a profound change in its cryptographic foundations before the theory becomes reality.
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