Can bitcoin falter under the influence of armed conflict? The recent fall in the hashrate provides a concrete illustration of this. In a few weeks, a military operation in the Middle East disrupted the balance of the network, highlighting its dependence on certain mining areas. At the same time, the rise in American yields and the slowdown of crypto platforms reflect a gradual disengagement of investors. Between geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressure, the market reveals fragilities rarely observed on this scale.
In brief
- A military operation in the Middle East coincided with a notable drop in Bitcoin's hashrate, revealing the network's sensitivity to geopolitical tensions.
- Iran, a major player in global mining, is seeing its capabilities affected by energy disruptions and reoriented military priorities.
- The rise in US bond yields to 4% is pushing investors to reduce their exposure to risky assets like Bitcoin.
- The crypto market is showing signs of slowing down, illustrated by the fall of Robinhood and the significant drop in trading volumes.
Bitcoin hashrate hit by Iranian conflict
The Bitcoin network recorded a drop of around 6% in its hashrate in the wake of a military operation led by the United States and Israel in Iran. This contraction comes one month after the launch of the operation “Epic Fury”.
According to Bloomberg crypto analyst Dushyant Shahrawat, “Iran is one of the largest bitcoin miners in the world”representing between 6 and 8% of the overall hashrate, with “70% of mining activities controlled by the army”.
This situation is based on several structural factors directly linked to the geopolitical context:
- Iran contributes 6 to 8% of the global hashrate;
- Around 70% of mining there is controlled by military entities;
- Energy infrastructure has been disrupted by the conflict;
- Resources were redirected to defense priorities.
These elements combined have reduced the country's hashrate production capacity, leading to a measurable impact on the entire Bitcoin network. Such an episode reveals an often underestimated dependence on certain key geographic areas of mining.
Macroeconomic pressures and the recomposition of the crypto market
In parallel with this episode, the crypto market is evolving in a less favorable macroeconomic environment. Yields on five-year US bonds have reached 4%, a level that is pushing investors to favor less risky assets.
This dynamic weighs on bitcoin, whose price has remained relatively stable around $67,000. In this climate, certain platforms are experiencing a marked decline. Robinhood saw its stock fall more than 16% over the month, while its revenue from crypto transactions fell 38% year-over-year. Volumes on its app also declined by 58%.
At the same time, other segments show opposite dynamics. Prediction markets crossed $192 million in transactions in March, an increase of 2,880% year-on-year. This progression is accompanied by regulatory tensions, with several American states accusing these platforms of offering activities comparable to gambling. Furthermore, euro-denominated stablecoins now dominate the non-dollar segment, with 85% of volumes, supported by growing adoption and a more structured regulatory framework.
These developments reflect a gradual recomposition of the crypto market. The influence of macroeconomic factors, combined with the emergence of new uses, is redefining investors' priorities. In this context, the ecosystem's capacity to absorb external shocks, such as Iran's denial of peace negotiations promises, while adapting to these new dynamics could determine its trajectory in the months to come.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
