After a near 60% drop, crypto stocks are faltering. Where the market sees a sharp correction, some institutional investors are already identifying a window of opportunity. This shift in perception reveals a tipping point for the ecosystem. Behind the immediate pressure, a deeper transformation is taking place: the gradual transition towards on-chain finance capable of redefining the sector's growth models.
In brief
- Crypto stocks fell as much as 60%, marking a sharp correction from their 2025 highs.
- Bernstein believes this decline could represent a low point and entry opportunity for investors.
- Price targets for Coinbase, Robinhood and Figure were lowered amid near-term pressure.
- The market is beginning to stabilize, with a slight rebound in the main crypto stocks.
A 60% drop in crypto stocks reshuffles the cards
Crypto-related stocks have undergone a sharp correction in recent months, with declines of between 57% and 62% since their 2025 highs. In a note to clients, Bernstein estimated that this movement has redefined the levels of valuation and affirms that it now constitutes a “more attractive entry point” for investors exposed to on-chain finance.
Despite this decline, the firm maintains its recommendation “outperformance” on Coinbase, Robinhood and Figure, while adjusting its price expectations in the face of a more uncertain environment in the short term.
In detail, this correction is accompanied by several adjustments and market signals:
- Coinbase target revised to $330, from $440 previously;
- Robinhood target lowered to $130, from $160;
- Figure lens adjusted to $67, from $72;
- An anticipation of weaker results in the first quarter;
- A slight rebound in pre-opening: Coinbase (+2.5%), Robinhood (+2%), Figure (+1.7%).
This readjustment reflects a market in the process of absorbing the excess valuation accumulated during the previous phase, giving way to a more measured approach to the short-term outlook.
The rise of tokenized finance
Beyond the stock market correction, Bernstein highlights a more profound transformation of the sector. The broker identifies a shift towards tokenized financial infrastructures, including stablecoins, tokenized credit and on-chain predictive markets.
This development redefines the growth drivers of crypto companies. Figure appears to be a central player in this dynamic, with loan volumes estimated at $12.8 billion this year, potentially reaching $16.5 billion by 2027 thanks to its expansion into new segments such as automobile financing or SME loans.
Robinhood, for its part, could benefit from the rise of prediction markets, which Bernstein estimates at $240 billion. These products would represent 17% of trading revenues and around 10% of total turnover from next year.
For Coinbase, the transformation is also underway. Bernstein anticipates a reduction in dependence on spot trading, in favor of derivatives and income linked to stablecoins. Derivatives could reach 14% of trading revenue by 2027, while stablecoins would contribute 19% of revenue by next year.
This reorientation of economic models reflects a change in cycle. Current market volatility no longer masks the diversification of income and the progressive integration of blockchain technologies into broader financial uses. If regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainties remain present, the projections put forward by Bernstein indicate a sector in full restructuring, where future valuation will depend less on crypto trading than on the actual adoption of tokenized finance.
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