Bitcoin is going through a zone of turbulence. As the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran enters its fourth week, financial markets are reeling and capital is evaporating at an alarming rate. The big question: can BTC still resist, or is the worst yet to come?
In brief
- Bitcoin has fallen by almost 5% since the start of the week, falling back below $70,000.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $253 million in outflows in just two days.
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs suffered $64 billion in withdrawals in three months, an all-time high.
Investors Exit Bitcoin and Stocks Amid Uncertainty
Since February 28, the date of the outbreak of hostilities, the markets have lived to the rhythm of the war. This week, bitcoin, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones, the Nasdaq and gold are all down around 5%. Only crude oil is doing well, up 7.30% over the week, a sign that investors are repositioning their portfolios towards traditional safe havens.
The scale of capital flight is unprecedented. According to the Kobeissi letterETFs on the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) saw combined outflows of $64 billion in three months. This is the largest wave of withdrawals ever observed on these instruments. It erases and greatly exceeds the 50 billion dollars in entries recorded last November.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are no exception to this trend. Despite a still positive monthly balance sheet of $1.48 billion, withdrawals are accelerating: 253 million dollars left these funds in two days. A worrying signal, especially after the $6.3 billion in cumulative outflows between November and February.
Glassnode, for its part, observes that the market is struggling to digest the selling pressure. Profit-taking briefly reached $17 million per hour before falling again, and with it, the price of BTC fell back below $70,000.
The on-chain analyst sums up the situation well: “ Growing geopolitical uncertainty is squeezing demand, limiting the market's ability to absorb even moderate realizations. »
Worrying parallels with the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war
Market observers look for landmarks in history. And the parallel with February 2022 is obvious. During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, bitcoin first plunged, then rebounded 24% in four weeks, before crashing another 64% by November 2022.
Today, the pattern repeats itself. BTC rose nearly 10% at the start of the crisis, however, this momentum is quickly losing steam. The crypto commentator Carlitosway identifies three factors of structural fragility :
- Pressure on liquidity, which reduces investors' purchasing capacities.
- Rising energy costs, which weigh on mining and margins.
- Forced sales, which mechanically fuel the downward pressure.
These elements converge towards a scenario of prolonged stabilization. Crypto analyst Finish believes that a bottom around $55,000 is likely before any significant rebound.
His conclusion is clear: “ Until the war in Iran is over, it will be difficult for bitcoin to move forward. The current context is marked by risk aversion. »
Bitcoin remains trapped in a hostile geopolitical environment, where fear dictates investment decisions. If the story of 2022 repeats itself, recovery will be possible, but it will take time, and the path could go through $55,000. Patience and caution are required.
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