Strait of Hormuz closed, inflation at 5%: Will Bitcoin explode or collapse?

The Strait of Hormuz closed, oil booming, and US inflation at 5%. In this explosive context, Bitcoin is resisting at $67,000. Here’s how BTC could turn this crisis into an opportunity at $74,000.

Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis: bitcoin holds up despite everything

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, in response to American and Israeli strikes, caused a shock on the oil markets. With 20% of the world's oil blocked, JPMorgan analysts predict a barrel of $120–130 a barrel, which could push US inflation to 5%. However, bitcoin, often sensitive to geopolitical crises, remains around $67,000.

This resilience can be explained by several factors. First, some of the geopolitical risks had already been anticipated by the markets. Additionally, reduced liquidity over the weekend dampened volatility. However, if Iran escalates its actions by targeting oil infrastructure for example, then BTC could come under additional pressure.

Bitcoin at $74,000? What the charts reveal

Bitcoin charts show an interesting technical structure. Indeed, on the daily chart, BTC held key support at $65,000, while resistance at $74,000 becomes a realistic target for the coming days. The 21-day moving average, located around $67,627, is particularly watched! An upward crossing could then trigger a significant rebound.

However, Michaël van de Poppe believes that bitcoin needs to break this moving average to start a real rally. Crypto Caesar anticipates a lateral movement before a clear decision. BitBull, more optimistic, sees in current stability a sign of strength, with a target of $74,000 if traditional markets hold.

Inflation at 5%, Fed under pressure: BTC will become the new digital gold?

With US inflation potentially reaching 5%, the Fed finds itself in a delicate position. Historically, bitcoin has often been compared to digital gold, a safe-haven asset in times of economic crisis. However, its current correlation with equity markets like the Nasdaq shows that it also remains a risky asset in the short term.

Data shows that a $10 increase in the price of oil can add about 0.2% to the U.S. CPI. In this context, bitcoin could benefit from its status as a limited asset in supply, especially if institutions continue to adopt ETFs. However, if the geopolitical situation degenerates into recession, BTC could fall below $50,000.

Bitcoin finds itself at a decisive crossroads. On the one hand, the geopolitical crisis and galloping inflation could propel it to new heights. On the other hand, an escalation of conflict or an economic recession could cause it to plummet. In your opinion, BTC could reach $74,000 in this context?