Bitcoin is going through a moment of truth. While American inflation is slowing significantly, the key argument which supported its legitimacy, that of a bulwark against monetary erosion, is wavering. The latest figures on consumer prices are reshuffling the cards and forcing investors to reconsider their exposure to BTC. Between macroeconomic improvement, persistent volatility and strategic questions, the value proposition of bitcoin is entering a phase of redefinition.
In brief
- A sharp slowdown in American inflation which weakens the argument for bitcoin as protection against monetary erosion.
- Investors forced to reassess the reason for their exposure to BTC: hedge, growth asset or store of value.
- Key figures, with a CPI rising from 2.7% to 2.4%, which reshuffle the cards of the inflationary narrative.
- A market climate marked by extreme fear, bitcoin down more than 28% over 30 days and a Fear & Greed index at 9.
Inflation slows and tests the bitcoin narrative
The gradual decline in American inflation is fueling a questioning of the role of bitcoin. Anthony Pompliano believes that investors are currently being tested by changing economic data.
According to him, this phase requires redefining the reason why bitcoin is held: protection against inflation, growth asset or store of value.
THE factual elements recent ones are as follows:
- Reports published at the end of 2025 show US inflation around 2.7% year-on-year, lower than forecast;
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the CPI increased from 2.7% in December to 2.4% in January;
- Pompliano recalls that the fundamental value of bitcoin is based on its fixed supply and asserts that “the main crypto and gold are excellent long-term assets”;
- The maximum supply of bitcoin remains limited to 21 million units.
This price moderation may reduce bitcoin's immediate appeal as a hedge against inflation. If inflationary pressure eases, the defensive argument temporarily loses intensity, which pushes some investors to reconsider their strategy.
Extreme volatility and the bet on the weakening of the dollar
The market climate reflects this uncertainty. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 9, a level not seen since June 2022, signaling extreme fear. BTC is trading around $68,850, down more than 28% over the last 30 days.
Strategy nevertheless maintains its position. Michael Saylor said the company would continue to accumulate and hold bitcoin regardless of short-term fluctuations.
Pompliano mentions deflationary pressures likely to generate volatility before a bullish recovery. He states that “the currency will be devalued at a time when deflation masks the effects, I call that a monetary catapult”. The US Dollar Index is down 2.32% over 30 days to 96.88. According to this analysis, continued monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve could strengthen the attractiveness of bitcoin in the long term.
The debate is no longer limited to immediate inflation, but to the future monetary trajectory and investor confidence. Between slowing prices and persistent volatility, the market is entering a phase of strategic adjustment. The evolution of the price of bitcoin will now depend as much on the policies of central banks as on the solidity of its narrative.
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