Bitcoin hit $60,000 last week amid widespread panic. According to the research company K33, this plunge would not be just another correction, but the end of capitulation. So, is the worst really behind us?
In brief
- K33 identifies capitulation conditions in spot markets, ETFs and derivatives as BTC falls towards $60,000.
- Bitcoin's daily RSI fell to 15.9, its sixth most extreme oversold level since 2015.
- K33 anticipates a prolonged consolidation phase between $60,000 and $75,000 in the coming weeks.
K33 declares capitulation, the signals that do not deceive
Vetle Lunde does not mince his words. In the report published Tuesday evening by K33, whose research he directs, he asserts that bitcoin's fall towards $60,000 in early February has all the characteristics of a local bottom, and there is no shortage of indicators to support it.
The daily RSI plunged to 15.9, its sixth highest oversold level since 2015. Only March 2020 and November 2018 posted lower values. However, these two episodes coincided with major cycle troughs. It’s hard to ignore the comparison.
On the volume side, the figures are just as telling. On February 6, two-day rolling spot volume reached $32 billion, an all-time high. On February 5 and 6, volumes ranked at the 95th percentile two days in a row, a phenomenon seen only once in five years, during the collapse of FTX.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 6, its second lowest level ever recorded. A signal of extreme panic which, paradoxically, often precedes reversals.
Derivatives, Bitcoin ETFs and volumes, the markets spoke loudly
Derivatives markets amplified the signal. The annualized funding rate for perpetual swaps fell to -15.46% on February 6, a level not seen since March 2023. Options biases have shifted into “extreme defensive territory,” readings not seen since the collapse of Terra Luna or the bankruptcy of FTX.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs also had a historic day. On February 5, iShares IBIT shattered its daily volume record, surpassing $10 billion traded.
That same day, capital outflows were among the five largest since the launch of these products. Despite inflows on subsequent days, weekly net outflows reached 13,670 BTC.
This table also recalls a rare signal observed at the start of 2026: for the first time since 2022, the profitable supply of bitcoin has fallen below 50%, a threshold historically associated with market bottom phases.
K33 does not claim victory, however. The company anticipates a prolonged consolidation between $60,000 and $75,000, with a retest risk at the lowest. But it excludes any significant collapse under this floor. For patient investors, the message is clear: capitulation may have occurred, we now have to get through the discomfort zone before the next cycle.
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