Despite bitcoin’s recent correction, several technical and on-chain indicators signal a possible return of the bull market. BloFin Research even believes that BTC has entered a new cycle, but this hypothesis still depends on the maintenance of several decisive supports.
In brief
- BloFin Research believes that Bitcoin may have entered a new bull market despite the recent correction.
- BTC remains above its 50-week moving average, a historically favorable signal for recoveries.
- The MVRV ratio and several on-chain indicators confirm an improvement in market dynamics.
- The latest bearish phase of Bitcoin appears shorter and less deep than those of previous cycles.
- Maintaining supports between $74,000 and $78,800 remains essential to preserve the bullish scenario.
Bitcoin returns above its 50-week average
The main signal studied by BloFin comes from the 50-week moving average. This curve, which smooths out price variations over almost a year, was around $78,800 when bitcoin crossed it in September.
BTC closed the week of September 20 around $81,200, then that of September 27 at nearly $84,456. It then surpassed $86,000 in early October, before giving up some of its gains.
This maintenance for several weeks strengthens the range of the signal. In 2015, 2019 and 2023, the lasting reconquest of the 50-week average accompanied the transition between a bearish phase and a new bull market.
Bitcoin is now trading around $83,600. It therefore remains above this average despite the recent wave of sales and liquidations observed on derivative products.
BloFin Research asserts :
Bitcoin has entered a new bull market.
This statement, however, represents the central scenario of the analysis company, not a definitively established fact. A prolonged return below $78,800 would strongly weaken this reading.
MVRV confirms market improvement
The MVRV ratio provides a second argument to analysts. This indicator compares the market capitalization of bitcoin to its realized capitalization, which values each coin according to its price during its last move on the blockchain.
An MVRV higher than its annual average means that the market valuation is growing faster than the average acquisition price of holders. As of October 11, this ratio was around 1.54, compared to a 365-day average near 1.44.
This crossover also accompanied the recoveries of 2019 and 2023. It suggests that investors are finding latent profits and that the valuation dynamic is improving.
Bitcoin has also never remained sustainably below its realized price during the decline in 2026. During the bear markets that ended in 2015, 2018 and 2022, the price had on the contrary fallen below this average acquisition cost.
Several on-chain data tracked separately by BIT Research also moved simultaneously into bullish territory. They include the realized price of short-term holders, NUPL, MVRV and movements of old coins. Their convergence constitutes a more solid signal than an isolated indicator, without guaranteeing the continuation of the increase.
A shorter, shallower bear market
Bitcoin reached a record near $126,000 in October 2025, before falling to $58,525 on June 30, 2026. The maximum correction calculated from daily closes thus reached around 53%.
This decline remains considerable, but it appears much less profound than those of previous cycles. BTC lost 84.5% between 2013 and 2015, 83.8% between 2017 and 2018, then 76.7% between 2021 and 2022.
If the June low holds, the bear market would also have lasted about eight months, compared to twelve to thirteen months in previous cycles. This development supports the idea of a more mature bitcoin, whose rises and falls gradually become less extreme.
The structure of detention has changed. As of September, approximately 16.64 million BTC had been held for at least 155 days, representing nearly 83% of the circulating supply. Cash ETFs and corporate treasuries also maintained some exposure during the decline.
Correction May Further Invalidate Bullish Signal
The recent decline is a reminder that crossing a moving average is not enough to eliminate risk. Spot demand weakened after the rebound, while profit-taking and platform deposits increased.
Two areas will now need to be monitored. The $78,800 level corresponds to the 50-week moving average, while the region between $74,000 and $77,000 concentrates several important on-chain thresholds.
A lasting weekly close below these levels would call into question the BloFin scenario. Conversely, their defense would confirm that the recent fall constitutes an internal correction to an ascending trend.
Bitcoin therefore presents several characteristics of a new bull market, but it has not yet provided irreversible confirmation. The signal remains constructive as long as the price maintains the supports regained in September.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our ‘Read to Earn’ program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
