Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be recovering, its price stabilizing after a long period of weakness. In this context, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), co-founder and former CEO of Binance, displays marked optimism in the long term. He says he is convinced that Bitcoin will reach $200,000, believing that the only unknown remains the question of the calendar. He also raises the possibility of a return of the altcoin season, although its timing remains uncertain.
In brief
- CZ claims Bitcoin will hit $200,000, with only the question of “when” remaining unanswered.
- He anticipates the return of an altcoin season, without being able to specify the date or the potential winners.
- He believes that only the same corners carrying real cultural or historical significance have a chance of surviving.
An unshakeable conviction about the trajectory of Bitcoin
During a recent AMA (Ask Me Anything) session held at Binance Square, CZ shared his vision for the market. He clarifies that this is not a short-term prediction, but a deep long-term conviction. According to him, the $200,000 threshold for Bitcoin is inevitable. He reaffirmed this position on X, emphasizing that in his eyes the general direction of the market is crystal clear.
This opinion is consistent with that of several renowned analysts, such as Tom Lee, managing partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors. In an interview with CNBC, Lee spoke of a scenario where Bitcoin would climb between $200,000 and $250,000, breaking with the classic four-year cycles usually observed.
He attributes this disruption to major structural developments in the financial system, notably:
- the rise of institutional investors, who support the recovery dynamic,
- the continued development of blockchain products by Wall Street giants, strengthening the infrastructure,
- and a growing support from the US government towards digital assets, boosting trust.
On-chain data reveals contrasting investor behavior
At the same time, Bitcoin experienced a technical rebound, briefly reaching $97,000 before dropping back to around $96,000. Santiment's on-chain data reveals that this rebound was accompanied by significant accumulation by “whales” (wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC), with +32,693 BTC added since January 10 (+0.24%).
At the same time, wallets holding less than 0.01 bitcoin evolved against the tide. Over the same period, these small holders reduced their exposure by 149 BTC, a decline of 0.30%. This dynamic suggests gradual accumulation by the largest players, while retail investor participation falters, a pattern frequently associated with tightening market conditions.
Bitcoin ETFs are attractive again, the hope of an altcoin season persists
Bitcoin ETFs saw $843.62 million in net inflows last session, the third consecutive day of positive flows, following a series of outflows in early January. This renewed interest demonstrates a return of confidence on the part of institutions.
While maintaining his optimism on Bitcoin, CZ has taken a more nuanced approach regarding the overall market. He believes thatan altcoin season could emerge over time, while emphasizing that the timing, duration and cryptocurrencies likely to benefit remain uncertain.
Supporting this analysis, data from BlockchainCenter indicates a altcoin season index set at 37which suggests that the market has not yet entered such a phase. The report also specifies that the current period without altseason has lasted for 486 days, and that 111 days have passed since the last identified season.
Continuing this momentum, CZ also spoke on memecoins, believing that only those with solid historical or cultural foundations have a chance of persisting, while more than 90% end up disappearing.
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