Gold and silver finished 2025 at all-time highs, and their rise accelerated further in early 2026. A combination of strong demand, tight supply and growing political risks are pushing investors into precious metals. Renewed concerns about central bank independence only amplify upward pressure.
In brief
- Gold crosses $4,600 and silver rises above $90 as investors seek refuge from doubts surrounding the Fed and rising demand for tangible assets.
- Trade tensions between the United States and China, coupled with export restrictions, are fueling soaring prices in a context of high geopolitical uncertainty.
- Analysts anticipate a test of $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver, driven by industrial demand and physical purchases.
- In 2026, precious metals remain the big winners, supported by the weak dollar, the prospects of lower rates, and global conflicts.
Monetary policy under pressure drives gold and silver to record highs
Gold prices rose above $4,600 an ounce this week after reports of a criminal investigation targeting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in connection with an estimated $2.5 billion renovation at the Fed's headquarters. This announcement immediately caused the markets to react, triggering a new surge in prices.
As of Wednesday morning, spot gold was trading around $4,633.46 per ounce. Silver, for its part, continued to rise, crossing $90 for the first time on Tuesday, before climbing 3.5% to $90.42 per ounce.
This surge extends an already exceptional year 2025 for precious metals. Gold gained about 65%, while silver soared more than 150%. The trend remains intact in 2026, with an increase of 7.1% for gold and 26.6% for silver in January.
Fund managers say the same drivers as in 2025 remain at work: limited supply, geopolitical instability, and uncertainty over monetary policy continue to support prices, with no sign of running out of steam.
Sino-American tensions: the standoff over resources intensifies
According to Daniel Casali, investment strategist at Evelyn Partners, his firm remains bullish on gold and silver. He cites continuing geopolitical tensions as major factors — notably the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump's new tariff measures announced in April.
Casali calls the current disputes a strategic clash over resources between the United States and China. In response to U.S. tariffs, Beijing has restricted its exports of rare earths, highlighting Western dependence on these critical materials for defense, advanced technologies, and AI infrastructure.
From now on, these controls also extend to money, a key resource for American and European industries. The rapid rise of artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, renewable energies and electronics is increasing pressure on an already strained supply.
Key Factors Shaping the Market:
- Intensification of trade conflicts between the USA and China
- Chinese restrictions on exports of rare earths and silver
- Growing industrial demand linked to AI, green energy and defense
- Limited growth in global mining supply
- Increased investor interest in physical metal
Trump-Xi: a summit under high diplomatic tension
All eyes are now turning to a possible meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, scheduled for April. Casali anticipates that export controls will dominate the agenda, although the outcome remains uncertain.
Political risk is also rising elsewhere: in early 2026, the United States deposed Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, and is considering military action around Greenland. Casali observes a race between Washington and Beijing to secure access to critical resources, each strengthening its geostrategic position.
China is exerting pressure through its export restrictions, while the United States is blocking Venezuelan oil flows, a large part of which until now was going to supply China.
Gold towards $5,000, silver towards $100? The shortage sets in, the risks explode
For Ned Naylor-Leyland, manager at Jupiter Asset Management, reaching $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver in 2026 is entirely possible if current conditions persist. He says the silver market is the tightest: export controls have redirected large volumes to Asia, where buyers in Shanghai pay a premium of around $10 an ounce. Trading is now abandoning futures contracts in favor of physical bars.
Money plays a central industrial role: electronics, automobiles, household appliances, renewable energy, weapons… all depend on reliable deliveries. The slightest disruption has an immediate impact on production chains.
Gold, for its part, is taking full advantage of a tense political environment and upcoming monetary easing. Rate cuts, unconventional measures and increased pressure on the Fed are strengthening its role as a safe haven.
Several factors continue to support high metal prices:
- Persistent doubts about the independence of the Fed
- Expectations of further interest rate cuts
- US Dollar Weakness
- Public deficits widening
- Unresolved geopolitical tensions
Paul Syms, EMEA Head of ETF Products at Invesco, believes that current conditions are even more favorable than in 2025. The affair involving Powell dealt a new blow to the credibility of the Fed, already weakened.
Despite the public support expressed by the ECB and the Bank of England for Powell, market concerns have not eased.
Syms concludes that with the combination of a weak dollar, high geopolitical tensions, strong industrial demand for silver and low interest rates, there is little reason to anticipate a near-term correction.
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