Bitcoin is going through a brutal correction phase, with a decline of 36% since October 2025. However, according to K33 Research, this fall creates a relative buying opportunity, with selling approaching saturation. Here's why this could be a great time for investors.
In brief
- Bitcoin has fallen 36% since October 2025, bottoming at $80,500, signaling a capitulation of sellers.
- K33 Research views the current bitcoin correction as a relative buying opportunity.
- Bitcoin predictions for 2026 range between $90,000 and $200,000, supported by ETFs and growing adoption.
The impact of the sudden fall of bitcoin
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a dizzying fall, even reaching a low of $82,000 to $80,500 on November 21, 2025! A level not seen since the start of 2024. This decline is accompanied by record transaction volumes, exceeding $14.3 billion in a single day, and massive outflows from ETPs, with a peak of 13,302 BTC in 24 hours. These indicators reflect a capitulation of sellers, often synonymous with the end of a bearish cycle.
K33 Research highlights that open interest on perpetual contracts reached a yearly high of 325,000 BTC before falling back to 300,000 BTC, signaling a reduction in long positions and a cleaning up of the market. Furthermore, the correlation between bitcoin and the stock markets has strengthened, but bitcoin is experiencing more pronounced declines. This is a sign of persistent selling pressure in a de-risking environment.
According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, this intense sales phase is close to saturation. Panic signals, such as high volumes and massive outflows, suggest that the market may soon find a bottom, paving the way for bitcoin to stabilize or gradually recover.
Why is bitcoin a strong relative buy despite volatility?
Bitcoin's recent fall has created a disconnect between its price and its fundamentals. This underperformance, particularly compared to the Nasdaq, where bitcoin is now 30% weaker than in October, makes it a relative buying opportunity for long-term investors. Several structural factors support this thesis:
- The growing adoption of bitcoin by financial institutions, facilitated by regulations such as the Clarity Act which reinforces its legitimacy as a safe haven asset;
- Next, the upcoming policy catalysts, such as the integration of bitcoin into the portfolios of leading banks. Which could expand access and stimulate demand;
- Finally, derivatives data shows a reduction in leverage and a decline in open interest. This limits the risks of cascading liquidation.
K33 Research believes that this combination of factors makes bitcoin a strong relative buy, despite current volatility. Institutional investors and long-term holders could therefore take advantage of this phase to accumulate BTC at attractive levels.
What price for BTC in 2026?
Forecasts for bitcoin in 2026 vary among analysts, but most agree on a medium-term bullish trend. Some anticipate a price range between $88,403 and $98,000 for 2026, with potential growth of 11.45% if BTC hits its high target.
Others, however, predict a wider range between $150,000 and $230,000, due to institutional adoption. These optimistic forecasts are based on two pillars:
- The continued influx of capital via ETFs;
- Growing adoption by institutions.
The recent fall in bitcoin, although brutal, offers a relative buying opportunity according to K33 Research. With forecasts of up to $200,000 in 2026, are the conditions for a future BTC bull run already there?
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