Bitcoin: Small investors hold on as whales desert

Bitcoin is faltering, and the market is splitting. While crypto has fallen by almost 15% in a few weeks, a clear divide appears between small holders and institutional investors. While the former take advantage of the decline to strengthen their positions, the whales discreetly liquidate thousands of BTC. This strategic shift, observed by the Santiment platform, could well mark a decisive turning point in the evolution of the market.

A strategic divide: when whales sell and individuals buy

Since October 12 after the chaos sown by Trump's tariffs, data from the Santiment analysis platform has revealed market dynamics that contrast sharply depending on the size of investors.

Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, often referred to as whales, gave up around 32,500 BTC. This massive selling movement coincided with a significant drop in the price of bitcoin, from $115,000 to $98,000 on November 4, before a slight rebound around $103,780.

Meanwhile, small investors took advantage of the decline to strengthen their positions. Like thenoted Santiment: “small individual investors took advantage of the decline to buy massively”.

This divergence between the two categories of actors constitutes a “major divergence between large and small investors”to be considered as a signal of caution. To support this warning, Santiment reminds that historical precedents show a clear trend: “historically, prices tend to follow the direction of whales, not that of retail investors”. Thus, this situation provides information on several points of vigilance:

• Whale sales occur in a high price zone, which could indicate an anticipation of a deeper decline;

• Individual purchases are made with a view to short-term rebound, often in contradiction with the signals given by the best-informed portfolios;

• The current configuration is similar to that of previous distribution phases, observed before more marked corrections;

• The out-of-sync behavior between major players and minors is historically a bad omen for the price stability of the leading crypto.

This tension between accumulation and distribution fuels uncertainty about future market trends, and casts doubt on the sustainability of the current rebound.

Consolidation, macroeconomic uncertainty and the key role of ETFs: analysts divided

Beyond the movements observed on the blockchain, some analysts favor a more nuanced reading of the current situation of bitcoin.

Thus, Bitfinex experts believe that the market is entering a consolidation phase marked by persistent volatility. “We believe this is not a sprint to new heights”they explain, emphasizing that bitcoin's rapid rise towards $125,000 in October was largely attributable to the enthusiasm triggered by inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

However, this momentum quickly petered out under the combined effect of macroeconomic shocks, a major options expiration and an episode of profit-taking. The market then corrected, bringing BTC below $100,000 before a slight rebound.

Since then, inflows into ETFs have seen a marked slowdown, with a total of $2.04 billion in outflows over a six-day periodaccording to Farside data. It is only now that these flows have stabilized, revealing a possible return of institutional interest.

In this context, perspectives remain divided. If ETFs were to return to a rate of inflows greater than $1 billion per week, combined with an easing of the macroeconomic context, some analysts do not rule out a return to around $130,000.

Jake Kennis, senior analyst at Nansen, however, tempers this optimism. He points out that despite bitcoin's historic year-over-year gains, the recent “liquidation and the breakdown of the market structure make a further rise less likely in the short term”. However, he adds “that a new annual high remains possible if the momentum changes decisively”.

Ultimately, Bitcoin's current situation reflects deep uncertainty, where technical signals coexist with contradictory market dynamics. While whale behavior calls for caution, the stabilization of ETFs and the possible return of bullish momentum could provide opportunities.