Despite the current euphoria and the new historical heights at more than $ 118,000, Bitcoin would not escape its cyclic destiny. Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, refuses to believe in the miracle of institutional adoption and warns that the next Bear Market could occur in an insidious manner.
In short
- The Bitcoin quadrennial cycle remains topical according to the CEO of Xapo Bank, despite the massive institutional adoption.
- The next correction could be triggered by a simple slowdown in Crypto news, without a catastrophic event.
- Institutional adoption is not enough to break the cyclical psychology of the markets.
- Overented companies holding Bitcoin could amplify the next crisis.
The bitcoin cycle is not dead and could hurt
Seamus Rocca prefers to break enthusiasm rather than nourishing illusions. In an interview with Cointelegraphthe CEO of Xapo Bank says that the arrival of institutions does not question the cyclic nature of Bitcoin.
“” Many people say: “Oh, the institutions are there, and therefore the cyclic nature of Bitcoin is dead. »I don't sure I agree with that He says.
This position detonates in the current context. ETF Bitcoin American spots exceed $ 50 billion in net entries, BlackRock has more than 700,000 BTC, and several companies around the world adopt the crypto as a value reserve. A painting that seems revolutionary, however.
For Rocca, these spectacular advances are not enough to break a dynamic over fifteen years old. The market remains subject to waves of euphoria and panic dictated not by technology or regulation, but by an immutable factor: human psychology.
Human psychology will never change. Cycles have nothing to do with Bitcoin, but with people. This time, the same boom and the same crash will occur.
An analysis shared by Aleksandar Svetski, author of The Bushido of Bitcoinwhich anticipates “the same boom and the same crash” as the previous ones.
Another strong signal: the still high correlation between Bitcoin and traditional stock markets, in particular the S&P 500.
Despite its growing reputation of reserve assets, Bitcoin remains, according to Rocca, a speculative asset, at high risk, still far from the status of definitive refuge value.
The silent threat of an organic collapse
Unlike previous corrections launched by spectacular events, the next one could arise from a simple “breathlessness”.
Rocca warns against an insidious scenario: “ The contagion effect could be as simple as there is no news on the market. »»
This organic mechanism worried more than external shocks. Without identifiable catalyst, investors may be caught off guard. A slowdown in developments, a drop in media interest or portfolio rebalancing may be enough to trigger a downward spiral.
The Breed venture capital company adds an additional dimension to this threat. Companies that have invested massively in Bitcoin via debt could trigger a domino effect.
However, not all signals are red. BREED's analyzes suggest that if most companies continue to finance their Bitcoin purchases mainly by equity rather than by loans, contagion could remain limited. This nuance offers a glimmer of hope in a generally worrying picture.
In short, Bitcoin may live its last months of euphoria before the next cyclical correction. Despite massive institutional adoption and new historical heights, human psychology and market mechanisms remain unchanged. Investors informed would do well to prepare for this possibility, because this time, the collapse could occur without warning.
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