As bitcoin hovers around $95,000, the crypto community is wondering about the possibility of a significant correction. Between the mixed technical signals and the history of the Thanksgiving periods, the short-term future of the queen of cryptos remains uncertain.
Technical signals paint a mixed picture
Bitcoin is currently in a critical phase after losing support at $95,000 on November 25. This break of a bullish chartist pattern led the crypto to find refuge on its 100-day exponential moving average.
However, on-chain analysis brings a note of optimism: according to researcher Axel Adler Jr, the low level of “ days of value destruction » (less than 2) indicates that long-term investors are firmly maintaining their positions, a historically bullish signal.
Analyst Javon Marks projects an aggressive target of $113,386, a potential upside of 20.7% from current levels. In contrast, experienced trader Horse identifies a likely retest zone between $82,000 and $88,500, based on volume profile analysis.
The Thanksgiving effect could weigh on the price of bitcoin
Thanksgiving, this traditional American holiday celebrated on the fourth Thursday in November where families gather around a turkey, historically marks a special period for the financial markets.
Indeed, historical data shows that this day, when traditional American markets are closed, often coincides with a temporary drop in Bitcoin. The most striking example dates back to 2020, where a correction in November preceded a major rally in December.
Charles Edwards of Capriole Fund notes an interesting pattern: while Wednesdays are generally favorable for Bitcoin, Thanksgiving Thursdays have regularly seen declines over the past five years.
The next 24 hours will be decisive: a daily close above $95,000 would confirm a bullish scenario, while a failure to recapture the 50-day exponential moving average could precipitate a test of supports towards $90,000.
If the fundamentals of Bitcoin remain solid with strong retention of historical holders, the Thanksgiving period and current technical resistances constitute short-term obstacles. The increased volatility expected in the coming days could provide opportunities for both buyers and sellers depending on their investment horizon.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
