While Bitcoin sets off towards new heights, some analysts shout at rational euphoria. Others, more cautious, recall that the party may well be short -lived. Behind the dizzying figures and cascading records, a hovers: that of the American federal reserve. Because if the markets anticipate a drop in rates, the CEO of JPMorgan, Jamie Dimon, plays the spoilsport and suggests the opposite. A unpleasant surprise of the Fed could derail the momentum of Bitcoin, especially in a context where individuals remain curiously absent. Is the King of Cryptos running empty? Decryption.
In short
- Bitcoin climbs, but the interest of individuals remains weak.
- Jamie Dimon believes that the Fed could raise its rates, contrary to expectations.
- Without retail support, a bitcoin correction becomes plausible in the event of a monetary shock.
Bitcoin climbs, but the illusion is watching
The recent Bitcoin flambé to historical heights, flirting with the $ 118,000, could make a new Bull Run believe. However, under the golden varnish of euphoric graphics, a crack appears: the almost total absence of private investors. It is an increase carried by the institutions, by ETFs doped at the billions, but whose roots remain fragile, because it is disconnected from the popular impulse which, historically, accompanies the great bull cycles.
Google searches In the term “bitcoin” only increased by 8 % despite these records, and remain 60 % lower than November 2024, post-election of Trump. A striking contrast that reflects a psychological reality: individuals think they have missed the train. Result ? They stay on the platform, while the locomotive starts without them. And this lack of popular support could become an Achilles heel if the macroeconomic wind runs.
Worse still, This retail disinterest is interpreted by some as a downwind signal in ambush. Because when an asset rises without popular craze, it has no real emotional base. Avidity is not there, which means that panic either is not far away.
Fed's Damocles sword: when monetary policy could reverse the trend
Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan, sows doubt in an overly confident market. According to him, the traders seriously underestimate the risk of an additional monetary tightening. Where the market only gives 20 % probability to an increase in rates, Dimon table on 40 to 50 %. A statement that makes the effect of an alert: what if the Fed did not soften, or even rates its rates?
CME Fedwatch data still suggests hope: 59.7 % of 25 basic points in September. But beware of the illusion of consensus. Inflation remains fueled by exogenous factors such as customs prices, immigration or budget deficit. So many delay bombs that could tip the scales in favor of a status quo, or even a tightening.
And in this scenario, Bitcoin could be violently caught up in reality. Because despite its status as a decentralized asset, the cryptocurrency is not immune to liquidity shocks or macro feelings. An increase in rates, even moderate, could reduce the appetite for risk, and institutions (current rally engines) are not renowned for their loyalty during turbulence.
The illusion of records: when the ETF masks the market
The paradox is glaring: never the ETF Bitcoin in cash had recorded such entries: more than $ 2.7 billion in a week. And yet, the retail market has never seemed so indifferent. This dissociation between institutional flows and popular inertia could become the singing of the swan of this increase, if it were based on a single too narrow pillar.
Because a healthy market is based on a balance: institutions bring mass, but individuals instill dynamics and longevity. However, the absence of “small carriers” poses a brutal question: what will happen if the institutions take their profits before the general public returns? The very idea that the current increase is based solely on structured funds, with cold and mechanical arbitrations, must alert.
And if the rate environment does not become more accommodating, if geopolitical uncertainty persists, then the solidity of bitcoin could be tested earlier than expected. Those who think that the $ 117,000 is the new floor could quickly discover that they actually walked on a slab hanging above the void.
Bitcoin is high, of course. But he is alone. Without the support of individuals, and with the threat of a monetary hardening, the correction could be brutal. It is not a question here of prophesying a crash, but of recalling that any summit reaches without popular foundation or sustainable macroeconomic clarity runs a serious risk of collapsing on itself. Arthur Hayes, on the other hand, anticipates a withdrawal around $ 90,000 before a potential flight by a ten factor.
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